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<br />1: <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Jou,"ol of Hydrology, 142 (1993) 373-389 <br />Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam <br /> <br />373 <br /> <br />[I] <br /> <br />Forecasting heavy rainfall from rain cell motion <br />using radar data <br /> <br />P.I. Bremauda and Y.B. Pointina.b <br />.Universit~ Blaiu Pascal. bCNRS. LaMP, 11 QI'enue des lAndais, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France <br />(Received 14 April 1992; accepted 2 June 1992) <br /> <br />ABSTRACf <br /> <br />Bremaud. P.l. and Poinlin. Y.B., 1993. Forecasting heavy rainfall from rain cell motion using radar data. <br />J. Hydrol., 142: 373-389. <br /> <br />Very-shert-range forecasting of precipitation (a few minutes to less than I h ahead and at a spatial scale <br />of less than I km) for hydrological purposes is based upon the track.ing of the precipitating cloud echoes <br />which appear in rndar data and the extrapolation of their detected motion. We have developed a new <br />forecasting method which focuses on tracking high-reflectivity rain cells, which are closely related to <br />convective cells. Comparison of our method with three other methods (persistence. global extrapolation <br />and the SCOUT 11.0 method) shows that our method is reliable and generally gives the best relative <br />performance. for each event studied. <br /> <br />INTRODUCTION <br /> <br />For many years, the forecasting of precipitation has interested meteorol- <br />ogists and hydrologists, More recently, urban hydrologists have strengthened <br />their requirements for spatially and temporally detailed rainfall forecasts. <br />especially for sewer management or flash-flood warning (Brunkow, 1980; Huff <br />et aI., 1980; Einfa]t et al.. 1990), The only practical technique for making <br />forecasts of high spatial and temporal resolution is to extrapolate the pre- <br />cipitating cloud echoes which are detected in meteorological radar data. Our <br />radar picture is a grid of 256 x 256 pixels covering an approximately <br />horizontal area (a PPI), Each pixel has an associated value of radar reflectiv- <br />ity, and of rainfall intensity, as a result of a unique relationship between <br />reflectivity (2) and rain rate (R), In this picture, a radar echo is the 'image' <br />given by the radar one particular precipitating cloud and is characterized by <br />a number of connected 'rainy' pixels. The extrapolation of radar echoes based <br /> <br />Correspondence to: P.J. Bremaud. Universite Blaise Pascal, LaMP. 12 avenue des Landais. <br />63000 Clermont-Ferrand. France. <br /> <br />0022-1694/93/$06.00 @ 1993 - Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. All rights reserved <br /> <br />