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FLOOD05587
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Last modified
1/25/2010 6:49:39 PM
Creation date
10/5/2006 1:39:44 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Stream Name
Cherry Creek & Box Elder Creeks
Basin
South Platte
Title
Regional Paleoflood Investigation to Access Topographic Effects of the Divide on Flooding in Eastern Colorado
Date
12/18/1998
Prepared For
CWCB
Prepared By
USGS
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />in East Plum Creek basin (fig, 1), Moist Gulf air that flows through the saddle of the Palmer <br />Divide (fig, 5) encounters these buttes producing localized rain cells in East Plum Creek basin. <br />Maximum rainfall amounts decrease by 50 percent within 2 to 4 miles from the buttes (fig, <br />1), which support the large effect of localized topographic relief on rainfall and flooding, The <br />results of the regional paleoflood study and computer-model simulations suggest that although <br />the Palmer Divide has substantial topographic relief ranging from 2,000 to 3,400 It in about <br />140 miles (15 to 24 ft/mi) , the locations of maximum convective rainfall amounts appear to <br />be more related to areas of localized topographic relief, Local relief as little as about 300 It <br />such as the crest of the Palmer Divide, along basin boundaries, in incised valleys, and isolated <br />buttes, which all seem to be formed by resistant bedrock, are at the centroid of maximum <br />rainfall amounts for convective storms, The localized maximum rain cells in eastern Colorado <br />such as those in figure 1 all occurred over areas of local topographic relief. <br /> <br />Several computer model simulations have been made by Dr, Ed Tomlinson of Applied Weather <br />Associates and Dr. Jan Paegle of the University of Utah (written commun" 1997), which <br />provide additional independent documentation concerning topographic influences of the Palmer <br />Divide on orographic precipitation, "These simulations were made using the University of Utah <br />mesoscale atmospheric model. The atmospheric conditions used in the simulations were based <br />on atmospheric sounding data associated with the 1965 flooding event along the Palmer Divide, <br />The result of these simulations indicate that: 1,) the Palmer Divide is a significant topographic <br />feature for initiating extreme rainfall events; and 2,) the heaviest rainfall centers are located <br />over the upslope and ridge line regions of the eastern Palmer Divide," Their modeling results <br />did not show maximum rainfall amounts in Cherry and Box Elder Creeks, <br /> <br />Eastern Colorado has long been believed to be a relatively homogeneous hydrologic area, <br />However, study results demonstrate a large spatial variability of flooding due to orographic <br />effects from relatively small topographic relief (proposed as more than about 300 It in about 3 <br />miles or less), Although large convective rainstorms have produced localized areas of rainfall <br />and flooding in all of eastern Colorado, the largest rainstorms and flooding are closely associated <br />with relatively low-topographic relief features in the Palmer Divide, <br /> <br />Flood-frequency estimates for eastern Colorado using regional-regression equations (e.g" <br />McCain and Jarrett, 1976) and various techniques using rainfall-runoff modeling have had <br />large uncertainties due to limited rainfall and streamflow data, which contributed to poor <br />understanding about the spatial variability of rainfall-produced flooding in eastern Colorado, <br />The present study results provide important new insight into the spatial variability of extreme <br />rainfall flooding and a paleoflood approach that can help reduce the uncertainty of estimating <br />flood-frequency relations for areas with limited hydrometeorological data such as eastern <br />Colorado, Flood-frequency relations for Cherry Creek, which incorporate paleoflood data, <br />indicate the 10,OOO-year flood ranges from about 44,000 1t3/s (near Franktown) to about <br />75,000 1t3/s (near Melvin), A new moments-based approach was recently developed by the <br />Bureau of Reclamation that is more robust in using historical and paleoflood data in flood- <br />frequency analysis (Cohn and others, 1997; England and others, 1998), The Expected Moments <br />Algorithm (EMA) is a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood <br />data, The EMA program was applied to the data for Cherry Creek gages, EMA results were <br />within about 15 percent of the LPIII analyses, <br /> <br />12 <br />
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