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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I' <br />I ' ,~ <br />J <br />I ,~~ <br />'7) <br />f'\\ <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />t \i'\ <br />\t};~>' <br /> <br />\ <br />I ,U: <br />,[I' <br />" <br />\\\\j <br /> <br />I~ <br /> <br />confidence. In 1985, for the major rivers in Delta County, all <br />information indicates that there is a very high risk that greater <br />than average flood damage will occur during next year's runoff, or <br />in the following years' runoff because of the extensive debris and <br />gravel bar deposits. At this time there is no way to predict the <br />certainty of next year's flooding damage 1 however, there are <br />several indicators that can bracket the probable range of damage <br />that could be caused by the runoff. <br /> <br />There are large amounts of very bulky debris in the river channel, <br />large trees and even a house. And the majority of the debris is <br />found upstream from all the bridges. Debris of this size affects <br />the hydraulics of the channel, especially at a narrow passage such <br />as a bridge, and particularly at a bridge with piers founded in <br />the main stream. Most of the bridges on the Gunnison, North Fork <br />of the Gunnison and Uncompahgre Rivers in Delta County have ceriter <br />piers. High, and even a normal runoff, will refloat the debris <br />and lodge the trees in the next bridge with a center pier. <br />Because there is so much debris, emergency crews will be busy <br />throughout the County cleaning out the debris clogged bridges <br />during the spring runoff. And, if there is insufficient emergency <br />personnel, the probability for flood damage will increase and so <br />will the costs. New channels cut by the previous flooding have <br />directed the flow of the river into unprotected banks adjacent to <br />farmland, bridges, roads and other structures. If they are <br />allowed t remain, the river will continue to cut into the banks <br />and eventually destroy the improvements. <br /> <br />\ <br /> <br />The third indicator of possible increased damage is the fact that <br />there is a better than even chance for higher than normal flooding <br />this coming Spring according to Derry Newby of the National <br />Weather Service. And, according to Mr. Newby, even a normal <br />snowpack can yield a high runoff under the right circumstances. A <br />high Spring flood could bring disastrous results by combining the <br />inevitable problems of high water with debris buildup on bridges <br />and loss of land and riparian improvements from bank cutting <br />through the channels left by last year's flood. Even an <br />inordinately low runoff will not solve the problem. There is <br />presently so much debris in the rivers that a low runoff this <br />Spring will not wash out the debris and the large trees will <br />remain in the channel for the next flood. 6lf <br /> <br />Based on these indicators and the present poor condition of th~ ~~' <br />river channels, estimates can be made of the range of probable 0" t.- <br />costs for a normal__()F_.h.~gJ:l,J:'l'!?.Qi!' if nothing is done to protect >ylt-" <br />public and private improvements. If there is a Spring runoff that <br />equals or exceeds last year's flood one can expect to see the <br />damages equal or exceed the damage recorded last year. This could <br />include the loss of State and/or County bridges, treatment plants, <br />farmground and other riparian improvements 1 a cost that exceeded <br />$1,600,000.00 in 1984. <br /> <br />A normal runoff will sweep the clogged channel of the large <br />and widen the new channels established by last year's flood. <br />increased debris, in the river will clog the bridges, damage the <br /> <br />trees <br />The <br /> <br />-5- <br />