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<br />decisions on the values of site-specific PMP. The addition of climatic extremes <br />to assist in the establishment of extreme precipitation atmospheric: structul"e is <br />fundamentally sound when used in gtJidinSJ decision making on the use of <br />appropriate PWI values and in making elevation adjustments to potential rainfall <br />rates. <br /> <br />The application of the extreme precipitation event atmospheric data and the <br />Convective Storm Methodology has resulted in significant reductions in the site- <br />specific local storm and general storm PMP compared to the values obtained <br />using the HMR 55A Plates. Even with these reductions HMS believes that its <br />PMP values for the Mason Reservoir basin are consl3rvative. <br /> <br />7.0 Opinion on extreme snow melt occurrence during a PMP eve lilt <br /> <br />The occurrence of a local or general storm PMP event simultaneously with an <br />extreme snow melt is a valid design concern. The occurrence of an extreme <br />snow melt in Colorado was almost achieved in Colorado during Spring 19S15. A <br />record snow pack was prevalent in most of the mountain basins into mid to late <br />June. In effect, the snow melt was delayed almost a month later than its <br />previous latest peak. During the period from mid-April to mid-July 1995, John <br />Henz of the HMS staff was part of the Colorado Flood Task Force which advised <br />the Govemor and state agencies on the expected oc:currence of the snow melt <br />peak and predicted related river flows, <br /> <br />Clear patterns between temperature, precipitation patterns and changes in river <br />runoff were documented during this period by the Task Force. Weekly <br />summaries which related observed weather patterns, precipitation and runoff <br />presented a clear view of the relationship of the runoff to the weather. When <br />temperatures were observed to warm above the freezing mark at elevations <br />above 10,000 feet the river runoff was observed to increase with a 24 hour lag <br />response period. The most dramatic increases in runoff volume were observed <br />during periods of three days or more of above norma I warmth at elevations <br />above 10,000 feet. <br /> <br />However, the river runoff was observed to dramatically decrease when the cloud <br />cover and subsequent cooler temperatures associated with precipitation events <br />were obsented. Again the runoff quickly slowed over a 24 hour period. <br />Excessive runoff required at least a 3 to 5 day period of above normal <br />weather to reach peaks but quickly fell below dangerous levels when cloud <br />cover and precipitation events were noted. <br /> <br />It is interesting to note that the Task Force was in general consensus that the <br />weather patterns during the runoff period this spring were similar to the ones <br />observed during the 1965 floods. The 1965 June Floods in Colorado were not <br />the result of a record spring snow melt runoff. Rather the fioods were the <br /> <br />44 <br />