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<br />5. The occurrence of the "train-echo etfect" twice in the first 15 hours of the <br />general storm. This amounts to allowing two groups of tw,o <br />thunderstorms each to occur over the draina!~e basin: Following Bertie <br />(1982) and reflecting the sequence of events 4Jbserved during th4~ 1965 <br />Plum Creek event, the rainfall from the second thunderstorm in E!ach <br />group is set equal to 10 per cent of the peak 1-hour rainfall from the first <br />thunderstorm of each group, <br /> <br />6. The second 6 hours of day 1 assumE~S a rain rate of 0.5 inches pE~r hour <br />(taken from the Big Elk Meadow evellt) Clind the final 12 hOlJlrsassumes a <br />rate of 0.4 inches per hour (also takEtn from the Big Elk Meadow I~vent) <br />assuming all precipitation falls in th4~ form of rain, and <br /> <br />7. Rainfall on day 2 and 3 ofthe general storm emulate the Big Elk <br />Meadow rain rates assuming all prec:ipit,ation falls in the form of rain. <br /> <br />The HMS PMP general storm total event is obtained by combining or <br />compositing one or more historical events. The combination of thE' double train- <br />echo thunderstorm rainfall occurring in cornbination with the heavy high elevation <br />rain rates of the May 1969 Big Elk Meadow stOl'm is very severe. Additionally <br />the continuing moderate rainfalls over 48 hours is also severe but consistent with <br />the duration of the May 1969 storm rainfall. The same additional assumptions <br />about 1000 mb dew point, PWI reductions and elevation adjustments were <br />applied to the general storm cases. <br /> <br />The application of the extreme precipitation event atmospheric data and the <br />Convective Storm Methodology have resulted in significant reductions in the site- <br />specific local storm and general storm PM!" compared to the HMR PMP values. <br />Despite these reductions, HMS believes that its calculated values are still <br />conservative. The primary difference between the HMR and HMS PMP values is <br />due to the use of different PWI values used in the two methodologies. One of <br />the reasons for this difference is that the HIVIR values were obtained assuming <br />moist adiabatic conditions to 50,000 feet ITlsl while the HMS values were <br />obtained taking this assumption to 18,000 feet msl. <br /> <br />The HMS treatment of atmospheric moisture is supported by findings of both the <br />historical storm search reported in the presents study and by the results of the <br />CSU Extreme Precipitation Study. Both studies found that extreme rain <br />events do not occur with totally saturated atmospheres but rather with <br />atmospheres with very moist conditions iinto the middle levels overlain by <br />drier air aloft. Additionally, the use of the updraft warm layer depth used in the <br />CSM is based on a reliable empirical relationship for estimating the maximum <br />rainfall potential for a particular atmosphel"ic: structure. <br /> <br />The use of enhanced data sets and improved methodology when lIsed in concert <br />with the HMR standard methodology provides a valid framework for estimating <br /> <br />40 <br />