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MONTHLY & SEASONAL WEATHER OUTLOOK I I I ~, ( .-/' U.S, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE-NOAA-National Weather Service I , I I I I I I I I I 3 TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 1993 I Hawaiian Outlook - Temperature Probabilities: ABOVE 30%, BELOW 30%. NEAR NORMAL 40% Precipitation Probabilities: ABOVE 25%. BELOW 35%. MODERATE ~O'Y. I a8"t;;a~ ..,y u:M:l' 01 Un 0JU00k nMCIs 10 !trow how muc:h eon~detIcz to pbGto " " ...-hen ~ ho-t he:awily to 1$1 it "'~l in. ded~CII'\. the mapped P'~ on '"' and next twO P-3S- .... .,..".." irl ~rmtI of numeric:.al ~_ Only t.a =I.gor\ft 0' .v<<a~ tempenlll.l"C >illd hrto of IOUII precipit:ltion, "flpP8f on hi /nap'_ Tl'lex ~ BElOW ~rd ABOVe Bf"Jd r.* b bek7w Of aboo..e DWII~ on the tempenr.tLle frl.;lp :JtlC'l ~ or above ~ Cll'l lhe precif::ibtia'l map. E.cl1 of lh<<Je cl&33('ll i. deolned ~ G Ig OQ:\,lr 30 p@tc:enr 01' h: tnl. in thelOl"gt\ln.: the ~Inlng ...u~licni'bo lV.lillN g"\ l.he- il"l'ler ~pn 01 thto Ovdock. .., 01 fft elceptlorwty dry pi3c;.c::1, :lU(;h 0Ii!:I 'r.rTllNnirnt Call1ornla. BELOW wi 0CClJ" mor~ than 30 ~.... of tM tme bec:r.~ f'O rain 8! ~I OCCUt!l mareth:ln. 30 ~~m CJfthe!:me.. Tho eot'l~ on the- maps Y>ow 0'.If' 83tim.tea of \:l"I!! pr~bi~b 01 OCOU/T'nctl fer the~ c;l.:lo~. ri";flg 01'1 f'aen Xle of :I. conwnon hHY)' ~ne of irdffef'~ (30 pore.nO 10.0r~d :I rn~imu.... for \he Jl"'ele1T...:I coll1r.3S. A third. intMrleolale ~trgary. NEAR NORMAllC'~l'Ol.tlV. cr MOOERA.TE precipitation. doe net ~r fl'IpllciUy on 11'Ie ~ps. 11";" cceur"O~<;Itt'JIl1i'N!' In lhoektng noW'>..Md boo=lU24...e t\a....1011'd th;1 ~.crlCtive 3kI11ir:J almost ernirdy CIVl:M6. IN, p.vt 0' ... freqvency ciSribulinn. it:, ptObab"i1-j ill kept at a eot\:IIant and uniiorm .0 per<;ant. ThHpbte,. ~ tt-e 1~ GO perceMl: b 3N.red tloe'lWeen AAOVE I I I I I and BEI.OW. the maps neoed Oll/y ;!how Oil ~rrtt for ihc prcfctred eta:>>. wif't h ~ ~Mfl it It'Id eo \0 be- a1tadled ID ... a.... likely e... ~ ~ whete the ptobDbiity of tht pt.terred dU\ dleeeds .Q pc:r'*T\. COM'~ II 10 the meat lJl;ety at ttw thr~ cl:aSS9t. In all unlhoded lJl'~. NEAR NORM.l.L ternper:l11JfCl 01 MODERATE pr~aion ish doaA 1h081 likely 10 occur. In the ate&/: pl.3~ ~ N~ do not hold exactly. all"IU BELOw (1"lO rain) wlI 6'31 infg thE> MODERATE c;13n.. FO' theta few pl:l.c.c!:l the reduced probability d/ MODERA T( i:I gv." In<iViduaDy in tt)e :'It.;,,iM~ Any ~ wbhlng to &!'aJ 'wi., my two OLltc.ome::s, ~~ ~..~ or baow the~.,m norm:ll UI precipibtiorl either abo\oe Ot ~ tht long-term ~n. m..:r.y do ~ by diVdiog tM Cill'ltral C8~~ pobabilily in h:::JK. given 20 polm 10 ~ of #'Ie probaE)lItty eon!Du~~anthf~. ~n~ceptirog~ ,.unlAlf in c.':lUIr...-.d 1t>e MtodItMVH!l!ln. whic.h ml,Qt be u-ealed lh'Don bt ;iI1ian uWng trIr bbl.. NOl'TNllt WId m<<i~ 0I'"e 1.n..Jed in th8 numerical \.UI!e:, of c;t~ limib. Some~, Ill.)' wbh to t\slve II compIre~ plob;)bili'ly 6:aribulion. from which thooir IJWI'l ~U 01 elZl:M5 C:.:l.n be ~igned ~tlf':lI. Few ~t.. 1hst eoMAIonS ~'ity<fl3tl"butlonwiJlbot .:2ppD.m..lftyG~;.,,1'\, 3nd 3dju:'IrirIJ 1tw k:cal ~ ~ oela_ llmlta wi'D'l the tJlfIs:J of ...~....., 30 0.00 ,.~, 3S "->' 1.90 '0 0.:l3 1.86 .. O,n 1.81 50 1.00 1.7011 For . pn~d'"lded pClI'Cerll: probabldt)' or ABovE or e~I.OW in ttM! l1r3I column. Inn m..W'I 01 ~ ~ d5lribvt:ion ....ill be UN: kc:il non'Tl81 plus Of mll"lLB v... pnx!UC1 of ttc 10::01 d&3:3 IIrnIl ttve:5ho1d v~lI-. and 1he tfletor' g...cn in the :Mcxmd GOlumn.. Tn.;. ::l~l'ldard devlalon of tIw c:ondtiCll"'W cS~ri'tMion wIU be the produce of ttlt' 3llI1lW cIa.>> imit ~ vatu.!' \he bclor 9vef1 for tM third column. T~ ;xiiu3tmenl:!l atnOUl"ll k:l :. SliflinoJ W ~9"I "lWT~ of h C:WTwI. Iteq......lC)' ci::llriblAiOl"l 0'1 rnon~ QC' :J8aaonal ~"cr.lgc: ~t\lf.. Since thor olima'ia tr~uel">ey d:mbution 01 P'~...\a\iol'\ ;, not tju~n. the ~n'I. IcInd 01 aimp&e gcner;::ilizatlCll"l of the la(~ probobilitie:) c.oMOI. unfrcw'tunal.y. be pl'OVid..-d IC'F ~l1yingil --... ---'-'-............ ....--.