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<br />. between maximum paleofloods and PMF estimates in the Rocky Mountain region (PMF estimates from
<br />Bullard, 1986). The maximum paleoflood estimate for these studies all are the largest discharge to have
<br />occur in 10,000 years or longer. A paleoflood study was conducted by Jarrett and Costa (1988) for
<br />Olympus Dam in Estes Park, Colorado, on the Big Thompson River at Estes Park, which primarily drains
<br />Rocky Mountain National Park, They estimated that the maximum paleoflood of 5,000 ft3/s is 6 percent of
<br />the PMF of 84,000 1t3/S. For a study of Horsetooth Reservoir in the foothills near Fort Collins, Colorado,
<br />the maximum paleoflood of 2,840 ft3/s is 24 percent of the PMF (12,200 1t3/S) for Arthur s Rock Gulch
<br />(Jarrett and Waythomas, in press). The maximum paleoflood of less than 10,000 ft3/s for Bear Creek at
<br />Morrison, Colorado (Grimm, 1993) is 6 percent of the spillway capacity of 153,500 1t3/S (which is assumed
<br />to be equal to the PMF). Grimm also determined the maximum paleoflood of less than 2,000 ft3/s on Bear
<br />Creek near Evergreen Dam, which is 2 percent of the PMF of 124,000 ft3/s, The maximum paleoflood of
<br />less than 5,000 ft3/s for Muddy Creek at Ritschard Dam near Kremmling, Colorado (Jarrett, in review) is
<br />less than 20 percent of the PMF of 24,000 1t3/S. Levish and others (1994) estimated the maximum
<br />paleoflood to be less than about 90,000 ft3/S for the Santa Ynez River at Bradbury Dam in the valley
<br />between the San Rafael and Santa Ynez Mountains in Califomia, which is 22 percent of the PMF of
<br />414,000 ft3/S. Ostenaa and Levish (1995) conducted a paleoflood study for the South Fork Ogden River
<br />at Causey Dam in the mountains west of Ogden, Utah. They estimated that the maximum paleoflood is
<br />less than 4,100 ft3/s, which is about 4 percent of the PMF of 108,600 1t3/S, House and Pearthree (1995)
<br />calculated a maximum paleoflood of about 30,000 ft3/s for Bronco Creek, which is one of the largest known
<br />. floods for a 19.3 mi2 basin in the westem United States, is located in the Hualapai Mountains of Arizona,
<br />The maximum paleoflood is 30 percent of the PMF of 98,700 ft3/s for Bronco Creek. Values of the maximum
<br />paleoflood and PMF for sites in the mountainous areas in the westem United States are shown on figure
<br />15. The large differences between PMF and maximum floods or paleofloods, which average about 5
<br />percent for sites in the Colorado mountains, is reason for concem.
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<br />The PMP/PMF methods and paleoflood techniques have inherent assumptions and limitations that
<br />produce uncertain flood estimates. PMP/PMF methods are based on theoretical assumptions about
<br />extreme-flood processes. In the Colorado Rockies, transposition of extreme rainstorms from distant areas
<br />that may not be similar hydrologically have been used to estimate PMP values. Paleoflood estimates are
<br />based on physical evidence preserved in channels for thousands to tens of thousands of years.
<br />Although paleoflood estimates have uncertainty, these estimates are based on physical data preserved in
<br />channels and on floodplains. Paleoflood estimates for mountain rivers have uncertainties of about 25
<br />percent (Jarrett and Waythomas, in press). This uncertainty primarily is related to representativeness of
<br />PSis of past flood depths and possible post-flood changes in channel geometry. The HWM-PSI relations
<br />developed from 1995 and other flood data in Colorado reduce the uncertainty of paleodischarge estimates
<br />in mountain and alluvial channels, Interdisciplinary paleoflood hydrology provides long-term hydrologic
<br />data, particularly information on maximum flooding in a river basin. This information can be used in a risk-
<br />I
<br />based approach for hydrologic aspects of dam safety, Clearly, the important issues in flood hydrology
<br />are: (1) the magnitude of differences between the two methods; (2) the effect of questionable extreme
<br />rainfall and flood data on past flood-study results; (3) the need to improve the understanding of flood
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