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<br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC DETERMINATIONS <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Fac~ors Which Reduce the Flood Hazard <br /> <br />Hydrologic Analysis <br />General <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Flood control improvements, such as channel improvements, reser- <br /> <br /> <br />voirs and bridge improvements, as well as good floodplain management <br /> <br />practices, such as flood proofing and controlling development in <br /> <br /> <br />floodplains, will reduce the potential hazards in floodprone areas. A <br /> <br /> <br />major portion of the reaches studied is presently undeveloped. In <br /> <br /> <br />these areas the enforcement of sound floodplain regulations will best <br /> <br /> <br />serve future developments. In the developed areas, very little <br /> <br />improvement has been done to the natural channel and numerous bridges <br /> <br />and houses are creating obstructions to the natural flow of a lOO-year <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />RELATED FLOOD STUDIES <br /> <br />For the study reaches covered in this report, the only gage site <br /> <br />with a record suitable for a flow frequency analysis is on Bear Creek <br /> <br /> <br />at Morrison. In order to determine flood discharges for the ungaged <br /> <br />reaches two different methodologies were employed. A regional fre- <br /> <br /> <br />quency analysis was used for the study reaches with a catchment area <br /> <br />larger than 15 square miles, and the Colorado Urban Hydrograph Pro- <br /> <br /> <br />cedure (CURP) was used for the study reaches with smaller catchment <br /> <br />areas. Therefore, the flood discharges for Bear Creek (except in the <br /> <br /> <br />vicinity of the Morrison gage), Turkey Creek, and Deer Creek were <br /> <br /> <br />determined using the regional frequency analysis approach while the <br /> <br />flood discharges for Mt. Vernon Creek, Sawmill Gulch, and Parmalee <br /> <br /> <br />Gulch were determined using the CURP approa.ch. Flood discharges of <br /> <br /> <br />lOO-year return periods were used for all reaches analyzed in this <br /> <br />study. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />flood. <br /> <br />In these areas a combination of structural flood control <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />measures and good floodplain management practices would probably be <br />most advantageous. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />~~~ional Frequency Analysis <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />A Flood Plain Information report (Reference 4) was prepared by the <br />U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha District, in October 1971 for the <br />reach of Bear Creek through Morrison and a portion of Mount Vernon <br />Creek. Their original topographical mapping, being the only avail- <br />able, is used for this study (Sheets 4 through 8) as well as most of <br />coe f- <br /> <br />their information on cross-sections, structures and roughness <br /> <br /> <br />ficients. The same information was used for the Flood Insurance <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Report for the Town of Morrison <br />the Federal Emergency Management <br /> <br />(Reference 5) prepared <br />Agency (FEMA). <br /> <br />Study <br />by PRC/ECI for <br /> <br />In the regional frequency analysis, 15 gages in the vicinity of <br /> <br />the study area, including the Morrison gage on Bear Creek, were <br /> <br /> <br />selected for analysis on the basis of record length and hydrologic <br /> <br /> <br />similarity. Since the flood events in the study reaches comprise two <br /> <br /> <br />distinct and generally independent events, either rainfall or snowmelt <br /> <br /> <br />floods, each type of event was analyzed separately. However, each <br /> <br />type of event was assumed to follow a log-Pearson Type III distribu- <br /> <br />tion. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />For each gaging station, an annual peak flood series was deter- <br /> <br />mined for rainfall events and for snowmelt events. The three sta- <br /> <br /> <br />tistical parameters which define the log-Pearson Type III distribu- <br /> <br /> <br />tion, the mean, standard deviation, and skew, were then computed for <br /> <br />the common logarithms of the annual flood series for each type of <br /> <br />event. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />-5- <br /> <br />I <br />