FLOOD03837 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

26 Rescue workers struggle to free 13-year-old Omayra Sanchez from the ruin of her Armero, Colombia, home, crushed before a wave of mud and debris from the slopes of erupting Nevado del Ruiz. Pi,1l1ed by the wreckage and submerged to her neck, Omayra said she could feel the bodies of her relatives beneath her. After 60 hours of watery cold, Omayra died of exposure before her rescuers could free her. ~ ~ ~ ~ '" " ~ ~ ~ W I ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ () illustration of the application of science in a cooperative, mutually beneficial way. For earth- quakes and other hazards, short-term prediction is generally more problematic. The inability to repeat the successful prediction of the Haicheng, China, earthquake - where thousands of casu- alties were avoided - is a reminder of both the difficulty of prediction and the need to pursue further research. All these forecasts rely on a mathematical model or an empirical understanding of the physical phenomena, the weather patterns, or the tectonic structure of the earth - knowledge that can be continuously updated with observations. These observations sometimes include the actual sighting of a phenomenon - as with tornadoes and hurricanes - and the model then tracks the storm's progress. As these models improve, so will accuracy of the prediction. The significance of improving the accuracy of predicting a hur- ricane's landfall from a 160-kilometer (tOO-mile) accuracy to an 80-kilometer (50-mile) accuracy can be measured in the millions of dollars if the storm is near a large city. Many of the problems of forecasting are so- ciological; others relate to methods of communi- cation. A community's willingness to respond to instructions dictates the type of information to be provided as well as when and how it should be disseminated. If the information is uncertain, then the failure of the forecast event to materialize can lead to skepticism, which damages subsequent attempts to warn the public. EMERGENCY RESPONSE The moment of impact of a hazard initiates the emergency response period, when saving lives and controlling property loss become matters of min- utes. Typically, the first on-site responses are the spontaneous actions of local residents. Much of their effectiveness depends on training; the speed and efficiency with which communitywide re- sponse occurs is determined by planning and rehearsal. For saving lives, prompt and coordi- nated search and rescue operations are crucial. Fundamental problems in all emergency re- sponses include: getting accurate information on the nature and scope of the impacts, allocating and managing local resources, marshaling and allocating external resources, and dealing with the