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<br />ROO-16 <br /> <br />Richard Olson <br />International Hurricane Center/CEAS 2710 <br />Florida International University <br />Miami, FL 33199 <br />(305) 348-1607 <br />olsonr@fiu.edu <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />ABSTRACT <br /> <br />"The 1985 Mexico Earthquake Disaster: A Critical Juncture?" <br /> <br />This paper adapts and applies the well-known Collier and Collier "critical juncture" <br />framework to three major earthquake disasters in Latin America: Nicaragua 1972, <br />Guatemala 1976, and especially Mexico 1985. It is determined that generated legacies <br />make the 1972 Nicaragua earthquake a critical juncture for that society, even in the <br />restricted sense of Collier and Collier, but the same cannot be said for Guatemala 1976 <br />or, surprisingly, Mexico 1985 at the national level (however, it is more true for Mexico <br />City). <br /> <br />The critical juncture framework proves to be a powerful heuristic device when applied to <br />disasters because it forces events to be analyzed in their larger contexts and counteracts <br />the tendency to overemphasize the sensational. The framework also facilitates the <br />identification of, and differentiation between, causal and revelatory events. For Mexico <br />in particular it clarifies the sequencing of the PRI-state's 1968-1988 legitimacy problems <br />and the role and importance of the 1985 disaster in that 20 year period. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br />