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<br />" Draft ARR Book VI <br /> <br />, <br />" <br /> <br /> <br />5 <br /> <br />",..."",~,,<.,...j <br /> <br />"'" : 4; : : <br />oI1:<31! ! i <br /> <br />AEP <br /> <br /> <br />Large Rare <br /> <br />Extreme <br /> <br />flOod <br />Peak <br /> <br />t <br /> <br /> <br />~ ,~ <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />". <br /> <br />10' '0' 10' <br /> <br />A".,ual Exceedan~Probability(f InYJ <br /> <br /> <br />. Long duration SE Aus: GSAM <br />. Long duration Tropical: GTSM <br />. Transition zone: max(GTSM, GSAM) <br />. Short duration: GSDM (Bulletin 53) <br />Bulletin 53 supersedes Bulletin 51: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />No change <br /> <br />Slgnlficanl reduction <br />In peak f10W8 <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />Rory Nathan, Sinclair Knight Merz <br /> <br />8/9/98 <br /> <br /> <br />Adjust plolting <br />positions for <br />Inter-dependence <br />and fit FORGE <br />growth curve <br /> <br />^v~r"e rCCurtl:nce interv.1 <br />, , <br />. NmD6 <br />. N-% <br />. N-4l <br />. )11"'24 <br />N-U ..,.' <br />. ~';~"~~7 <br />.;- <br /> <br />.' <br />.on <br />600 <br />.. <br />400,! <br />i <br />zuni <br />, <br />. <br />llJlle <br />10 i' <br />60 - <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />AmalPMP <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />FOl'.1poinldata <br /> <br />, <br />" <br /> <br />III I 10'.110"210-4 <br />A.nualn.ccedalleeprobability(%) <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />" <br /> <br /> <br />. Long duration SE Aus: GSAM <br />. Long duration Tropical: GTSM <br />. Transnion zone: max(GTSM, GSAM) <br /> <br />",j\ <br /> <br />" <br /> <br /> <br />" <br /> <br /> <br />. Distinction made between .operational" <br />and "theoretical" estimates <br />. Theoretical estimate is upper limit <br />. Operational estimates can be exceeded <br />as based on assumptions <br />. Rainfall frequency curve passes <br />through at angle, does not asymptote <br />to the horizontal <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />5 <br />