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<br />< Draft ARR Book VI <br /> <br />.- <br /> <br /> <br />. Interpolation of <br />Intermediate events <br />based on rainfalls, not <br />floods <br /> <br />I Flood-b.... <br />/' Flood. <br />Flood / ba~ <br /> <br />2 1 PMF <br />Probability(%) <br /> <br />R'~'~ <br />2 1 PMP <br />Pfobabiity(%} <br /> <br />FI""1 /'~n"'" <br />...... ./ Durations <br />2 1 PMF <br />ProbaWiIy(%) <br /> <br />Rainfall.based <br /> <br /> <br />Reservoir <br /> <br />AEP of DCF (1 in Y) <br />Original Recent <br />Assessment Assessment <br />(1991-1994) (1998) <br /> <br />Risk <br />Reduction <br /> <br />I <br />\ <br />\ <br />\ <br />\ <br />'-, <br />"--------- <br /> <br />20,000 <br /> <br />25 <br /> <br />8.000 <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />25,000 <br /> <br />130,000 <br /> <br />50 <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />10,000 <br /> <br />23,300 <br /> <br />23 <br /> <br /> <br />. Derivation of outflow floods <br />. Joint probability analysis of initial <br />reservoir contents <br />. Concurrenttribulary flows <br />. Snowmelt <br />. long duration events <br />. Treatment of uncertainty <br />. Worked examples <br /> <br />. I <br /> <br />Rory Nathan, Sinclair Knight Merz <br /> <br /> <br />,. <br />7- <br />1,- <br /> <br />" '8 (\) <br /> <br />Reflects general thrust of <br />guidelines In which the use <br />of better Information reduces <br />inherent conservatism <br /> <br />OJ 01.'" 001 ...., <br />"'.......lbcHdan'" p,._bil.., ('lI.1 <br /> <br /> <br />. Model calibration recommendations <br />. Baseflow <br />. Seasonal design floods <br />. "Quick PMP' estimates (only GSAM <br />region) <br />. Incorporation of paleohydrology <br />estimates <br />. Estimation of the PMF <br /> <br /> <br />. Considerable progress In extreme <br />event analysis over past few years <br />. New information and procedures have <br />been incorporated into draft guidelines <br />. Guidelines currently in second round of <br />external review <br />. Will be released for wider comment in <br />next few weeks <br />. Provides considerably sounder basis <br />for risk management <br /> <br />819/98 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />/I <br /> <br />~~ <br />