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<br />case the probability of debris flows is the smne .or greate'::. thal~ the probability <br /> <br />of the rainstorm event. Debris flow probability may be greater because <br /> <br />a rainstorm of lesser intensity (and greater probability) may also be capable <br /> <br />of triggering future events of approx~nately the same magnitude. <br /> <br />A first objective, therefore, in determining the debris flow probability, <br /> <br />or fixing a lower limit to the probabilit:" is to estimate the return period <br /> <br />of the rainstorm. <br /> <br />B. The July 24, 1977, Rainstorm <br /> <br />The rainfall measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini st r at ion <br /> <br />(NOAA) weather station in GIE!Uwood Springs during thE! several days preceding <br /> <br />and including the debris flows is given in Table 4. <br /> <br />Date <br /> <br />Ju1y18 <br />July 19 <br />July 20 <br />July 21 <br />July 22 <br />July 23 <br />July 24 <br /> <br />'fable 4 <br /> <br />Rain in <br />Inches (mm) <br />o .02 -co-:sT) <br />0.00 (0.00) <br />0.00 (0.00) <br />0.24 (6.10) <br />0.15 0.80) <br />0.00 (0.00) <br />1.08 (27.4) <br /> <br />Sufficient rainfall occurred during the three days preceding the flows <br /> <br />to wet although probably not saturate, the soil. <br /> <br />-- 30 - <br />