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<br />Since estimated total sales exceed estimated total generation each year <br />,through FY 1989, purchases are required each year. Pending completion of <br />the post-1989 marketing plan, total sales arelassumed to equal total <br />generation after FY 1989. The estimated pumpjng and salinity control <br />requirements were obtained from the Bureau of'Reclamation. An estimated 4 <br />GWH annually for Reclamations's visitor centers and government camps were <br />excluded from generation and sales totals. <br /> <br />3. capacit~. Studies for each power rate adjustment prior to <br />the last one assumed t at only the capacity available in the most adverse <br />year would be contracted for and sold. Operating,experience however, <br />indicated that additional capacity could be marketed on a short term basis. <br />The FY 1977 power repayment studies for the l~st rate adjustment assumed a <br />lower quartile capacity projection. The tabulation below compares the <br />FY 1977 projection of saleable capacity using the lower quartile projection <br />versus the actual capacity sales for FY 1978-1981: <br /> <br /> <br /> Capacity Sales (kW) Amount Projected Sales <br /> Exceeds Actual Sales <br />FY Projected Actu a 1 (Percent) <br />1978 1,237,000 1,227,854 0.7 <br />1979 1,285,000 1,243,682 3.3 <br />1980 1,305,000 1,342,895 -2.8 <br />1981 1 ,303 ,000 1 ,356 .800 -=i:.Q. <br />Tota 1 s 5,130,000 5,171,231 -0.8 <br /> <br />A lower quartile projection of saleable capac,ity was again used for this <br />study. <br /> <br />Figures 11 and 12 show the CRSP sUlllller and winter saleable capacity at <br />load. These estimates are based on full pla~t capacity less operating <br />reserves of 10 percent of the load. Transmission losses are expected to be <br />offset by diversity. The fifteen sequence hydrological analysis explained <br />above was also used to develop capacity estimates. However, rather than <br />averaging the fifteen sequences, the capacity available at least 75% of the <br />time (lower quartile) was used. On Figures 1;1 and 12, the jagged curves <br />represent the lower quartile capacity and the bottom dotted curves represent <br />a smoothed lower envelope of the lower, quartile capacity, excluding the CUP <br />capacity. Adding the CUP capacity in excess lof its project needs to the <br />bottom dotted curves gives the top dotted cu~ves which are the saleable <br />capacities useti in the power repayment studies. Capacity is expected to <br />increase through 1990 due to uprating of the 'generators at the Glen Canyon, <br />Flaming Gorge, and Blue Mesa Powerplants and ,the installation of generating <br />units on the CUP. After 1990, estimated saleable capacity decreases because <br />of upstream water depletions. <br /> <br />Table 5 shows a breakdown of the estimated capacity uses among project <br />pumping and salinity control, firming up the!RGP generation, capacity in <br />firm energy sales, and peaking capacity. Based on the assumption that the <br />Bureau of Reclamation will establish a special rate for project gravity <br />irrigation pumping loads, an adjustment is shown for the purpose of <br />23 <br />