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Last modified
1/25/2010 6:25:19 PM
Creation date
10/4/2006 11:06:29 PM
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Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Basin
Statewide
Title
Comparison of Nine Uncalibrated Runoff Models to Observed Flows in Two Ssmall Urban Watersheds
Date
3/25/1999
Prepared By
USGS
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Five-minute rainfall data for six storms for two gages at Surrey Downs (fig~ IA) and five gages at Harvard Gulch (fig. <br />IB) were provided. Information on antecedent conditions including the amount of precipitation In the past 1,3,7, and <br />14 days and the time since the last 0.0, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 in. of rain was provided for each storm at Surrey Downs. No <br />antecedent conditions Were reported for Harvard Gulch because of the semiarid climate, but it was reported that the <br />area is routinely irrigated with 1.0 to 1.5 inlwk which is considered equal to the rate of evaporation. Daily evaporation <br />at the Surrey Downs watershed ranged from about 0.30 inches in the summer to about 0.02 inches during the winter. <br /> <br />The rainfall and antecedent conditions for the storms sinJulated are summarized in table 2. Storms at the Harvard <br />Gulch site averaged about 1.5 hours, and those at the Surrey Downs site averaged about 15 hours. Rainfall intensity in <br />the Harvard Gulch watershed was generally 5 to 6 times greater on average than in the Surrey Downs watershed. <br />Often, the 60-minute maxinJum intensity recorded in the Harvard Gulch watershed by a single raingage exceeded the <br />average rainfall volume for all gages indicating a wide spatial variability. Rainfall in the Surrey Downs watershed <br />was relatively uniform. <br /> <br />COMPARISON OF SIMULATE}) AND OBSERVED FLOWS <br /> <br />Results of the model-simulated flows and storm volumes (fig. 2 and 3) are summarized in terms of the' percent error <br />(departure fro~erved values) in table 3 (peak flows) and table 4 (storm volumes). The percent errods computed <br />as; <br /> <br />r = (predicted-Observed). 100 (1) <br />Observed <br />where: predicted Is the simulated value offlow or volume. and <br />observed Is the measured value of flow or volume <br /> <br />CASC2D results were obtained only for Harvard Gulch for the May 8, 1981 storm; the results are not included in the <br />tables, but are shown in figure 2. Error for CASC2D sinJulations was -10 percent for peak flow and -39 percent for <br />storm volume. Also, re$ults ofCHUP/SWMM, the distributed version of the CUHP model linked using SWMM, is <br />only available for the Harvard Gulch watershed because no sinJulations were made of the Surrey Downs watershed. <br /> <br />Simulated peak flows differed from observed peak flows (table 3) by -100 to 260 percent at Harvard Gulch and by <br />-100 to 200 percent at Surrey Downs. The RMS peak flow error ranged from 19 to 171 at Harvard Gulch and from 40 <br />to 162 at Surrey Dowrus. The average RMS peak flow error for all models was 55 for Harvard Gulch and 49 fur S'h- <br />rey Downs. The standard deviation of the error in the predicted peak flow ranged from 17 to 92 at Harvard Gulch and <br />from 20 to 85 at Surrey Downs. The average standard deviation in peak flow model error is about 40 percent greater <br />at Surrey Downs (40) then at Harvard Gulch (31). In general, sinJulated peak flows at the Surrey Downs site tend to <br />be overpredicted, whereas sinJulated peak flows for some models are overpredicted and some are llnderpredicted at <br />Harvard Gulch. <br /> <br /> PEAK FLOW <br /> 25 , 2.500 ., <br />~, 20r + / 2,000 ~ v / EXPLANATION <br />- / ~ / <br /> 0 + <1 / . CASC2D <br />~- -z 1,000 / + CUHP <br /> ~o 10 'i' / <1/ <br /> OU X CUHP/SWMM <br /> ..JW .+ ~ / 700 <1,.t <br /> u.(J) DR3M <br />-- "'0: 7~ Q ~ 500 . / ~ e 0 <br /> <w 5~ 3+ / !! 400 . . HEC <br /> Wo. r / <br />~- 0.>- 4 300 <1/ - 0 HSPF <br />- Ow ~7 <1. /~ v <br /> ww 3 200 t>. PSRM <br /> >-u. /~ 06' <br />'. ~Q v <br />~~ -1 & <l SWMM <br />, ::JaJ 2 <br /> ::!::J / ... 6 100 11 .., TR20 <br /> (iiU / /lI- <br /> ~ / A. SURREY DOWNS 70 / !:!6 B. HARVARD GULC~ <br /> 1 . , 50 <br />- <br /> 1 2 5 10 2025 50 100 200 500 1,000 2,500 <br /> OBSERVEO PEAK FLOW. IN CUBiC FEET PER SECOND <br /> Figure 2.-8imuiated versus observed peak flows at (A) Surrey Downs, WA and (B) Harvard Gulch, CO~ <br /> for six storms [CASC2D results only available for one storm at Harvard Gulch, Locations shown in fig 1.] <br /> <br />7-167 <br /> <br />'... <br />i: <br />
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