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Last modified
1/25/2010 6:23:37 PM
Creation date
10/4/2006 10:40:58 PM
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Floodplain Documents
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Statewide
Title
Where the Past Paleoflood Hydrology Meets the Present, Understanding Maximum Flooding
Date
1/1/1995
Prepared For
State of Colorado
Prepared By
USGS
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />" <br /> <br />Paleoflood Hydrology, Design of Hydraulic Structures, and Water-Resources Management <br /> <br />Robert D Jarrett, US Geological Survey <br />Box 25046, MS 418, Denver, Colorado 80225 USA <br /> <br />The economic and environmental importance of major floods emphasizes the need for a <br />better understanding of the hydrometeorologic processes and variability of flooding. <br />Floods are the most destructive of all natural hazards. In the United States, the average <br />annual flood damage is over $2.5 billion and the average annual number of deaths is <br />about 100. Unfortunately, flood losses continue to increase. US Geological Survey <br />researchers have developed an interdisciplinary approach that enhances conventional <br />flood studies with paleoflood information. Paleoflood hydrology is the study of evidence of <br />prehistoric floods that have occurred in about the past ten thousand years. Paleoflood <br />techniques offer a way to lengthen short-term hydrologic data, to reduce the uncertainty in <br />hydrologic analysis, and therefore, to help reduce flood losses. <br /> <br />For more than a decade, USGS hydrologists have conducted interdisciplinary research of <br />many contemporary and prehistoric (paleofloods) floods on rivers throughout the Rocky <br />Mountains. The 1976 Big Thompson River (Colorado) flood, which killed 140 people and <br />caused over $35 million in damages, was the type of flood believed to occur frequently at <br />any elevation in the Rocky Mountains. Analyses of streamflow data indicate that extreme <br />floods occur very infrequently than computed by using existing engineering methods in <br />many basins. Researchers also identified that there is an elevation limit to substantial <br />flooding. Peak flows in river basins above about 1.700 m in the Northem Rockies to about <br />2,400 m in the Southern Rockies are small compared to floods at lower elevations. <br /> <br />These results have important implications for the design of hydraulic structures in flood <br />plains, flood-plain management, and the implementation of flood-warning systems. <br />Modifications of the existing spillways of the 162 high-risk dams in Colorado are expected <br />to cost over $200 million. For example, Olympus Dam in Estes Park, Colorado, is located <br />at an elevation of 2,300 m. The spillway was designed in the 1950's for a flood of 637 <br />m3/s. Design requirements developed in the 1980's for spillways in the Rocky Mountains <br />would have required a spillway modification to accommodate a flood of 2,780 m3/s. <br />USGS research showed that floods have not exceeded about 140 m3/s in at least 10,000 <br />years. Thus, the USGS, in collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation, was able to <br />demonstrate that a spillway modification of about $10 million was unnecessary. The <br />USGS methods have been applied to dams in other parts of the country. By using <br />paleoflood studies, approximately $60 million was saved in unnecessary spillway <br />modification for Bradbury Dam on the Santa Ynez River in California. There are <br />thousands of dams throughout the Rocky Mountain region and similar spillway <br />modifications would cost many tens of billions of dollars. Throughout the Rocky Mountain <br />region (and in other States and in other countries), dam-safety decision-making and <br />spillway-size criteria are being reevaluated. Additional hydrometeorologic and paleoflood <br />research needs are being formulated so that dam-safety design criteria can be revised. <br />
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