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<br />explanatory notes for each column. Of significance to note is that on <br />Figure 6, Table 1, and on other figures and tables to follow, the data <br />for fiscal year 1977 cover a IS-month period. The fiscal years before <br />that are for the periods July through the next June, and the fiscal <br />years after that are for the periods October through the next September. <br /> <br />The following paragraphs provide detailed explanations of the <br />repayment study data, including power revenues and the costs to be paid <br />by such revenues. <br /> <br />C. CRSP Power Resources and Power Sales. Project capacity and <br />energy resources are dependent to a large extent on climatic conditions <br />which affect both the supply of project water and the use of project <br />water. Project power operations are conducted within the limitations <br />of the water statutes governing the use of Colorado River water. The <br />design of the project facilities coupled with reservoir operating <br />criteria enable the major powerplants to be operated at maximum <br />capacity during heavy load hours, thus making it possible to market <br />full plant capacity less operating reserves and less the amount <br />required by project use. <br /> <br />The significant factors involved in the repayment study in <br />regard to capacity and energy resources and power sales are discussed <br />below. <br /> <br />1. Hydrological Basis for Estimating Project Generated <br />Energy. For fiscal years 1964 through 1977, actual generation data <br />were used. The hydrological analysis used for projections of project- <br />generated energy after fiscal year 1977 was based on runoff and depletion <br />records for the Colorado River drainage system above each of the <br />reservoir sites for the period 1906 through 1977. Using these records <br />and subtracting estimated future depletions, fourteen 72-year sequences <br />of operation were run for each season (summer and winter) of future years. <br />In the first sequence, the water supply for the starting year of 1978 was <br />assumed to be equal to that of the year 1906 (except as modified by <br />depletions). In the second sequence, the water supply for the starting <br />year of 1978 was assumed to be equal to that of the year 1911 (as <br />modified by depletions). The other sequences were run similarly using <br />S-year intervals to determine the water supply for the starting year of <br />1978 until in the fourteenth sequence, the water supply for 1978 was <br />assumed equal to that of 1971 (as modified by depletion). The averages <br />of the fourteen sequences for each season of each future year were <br />construed to represent a reasonable estimate of the future average <br />generation per season. <br /> <br />Figure 7 shows the historical flow at Lee Ferry, Arizona, for <br />the period 1896 through 1977. It will be noted from this that, in <br />the 14 years since start of generation by the CRSP powerplants (water <br />year 1964), there have been 4 years of flow above and 1 year equal to <br />the long-time average. <br /> <br />17 <br /> <br />