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<br />L <br /> <br />maintenance problem in the streams and streets in the City, Infiltration from snowmelt may also <br /> <br /> <br />saturate the ground, which could cause landslides. Landslides are different than the land flows <br /> <br /> <br />discussed in this report, Landslides are governed by different processes and analysis methods than <br /> <br /> <br />land flows, and an analysis ofthe landslide potential of Aspen Mountain is beyond the scope of this <br /> <br /> <br />project. <br /> <br />Manmade snow should have little effect on the potential for mudflows or mud floods, The exception <br /> <br /> <br />would be if a large rain event occurred on snow and the snow would not normally still be there except <br /> <br /> <br />for the addition of manmade snow, <br /> <br />A rain on snow event could cause a very serious problem for the City of Aspen, In reviewing Tables <br /> <br /> <br />12 and 13, it is apparent that a 2.year storm occurring on snow would be equivalent to about a 25- <br /> <br /> <br />year storm occurring in the summer (without snow), and a lO-year storm occurring on snow would <br /> <br /> <br />produce almost a 1 DO-year event without snow, It is strongly recommended that ajoint probability <br /> <br /> <br />analysis be performed to determine the actual likelihood of a given frequency rainstorm falling on <br /> <br /> <br />snow, It would allow the City to balance the level of risk (frequency of occurrence) of a very large <br /> <br /> <br />flow event caused by rain on snow against the cost of building remediation projects to prevent damage <br /> <br /> <br />to the City and its people, <br /> <br />G. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER REFINEIvlENT OR ANALYSIS <br /> <br />The models used to develop estimates of the magnitude of water floods, mud floods, mudflows, <br />snowmelt, and rain on snow could be further refmed to provide more accurate estimates of these flows <br />and water surface elevations, In some cases, these refinements may involve the use of more detailed <br />and elaborate analysis methodologies and models, and in other cases, more accurate and detailed data <br />can be obtained and used in the models, <br /> <br />The following items have been identified during the course of this study as areas that could be refmed <br />to improve the modeling results, <br /> <br />I, Define the soil parameters of each node individually in FLO-2D, Currently, every node <br />(6,508 nodes) has the same soil properties. According to the SCS soil map and classifications <br />there are several very different types of soil (Type B and Type D) on the lower reaches of <br />Aspen Mountain and through the City, The properties provided by the SCS Soil Survey <br /> <br />24 <br />