FLOOD01459

• County: Gunnison
• Community: Uncompahgre Valley
• Title: Upper Gunnison-Uncompahgre Basin Phase 1 Feasibility Study Summary Report
• Date: 5/1/1989
• Prepared For: Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority
• Prepared By: HDR Engineering, Inc.
• Floodplain - Doc Type: Project

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4.0 FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMANDS AND WATER AVAILABILITY

4.1 INTRODUCTION

Future water demands within the Study Area were forecasted. Forecasts
were prepared for municipal, industrial and agricultural use through the year
2035. Three separate forecasts were prepared for each water use sector to
reflect Baseline, Moderate and High economic growth scenarios which are
discussed below. The basin model was then operated to assess the ability of
current water supplies to meet the future demands.

4.2 FORECAST OF FUTURE MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL DEMAND

The methodology adopted in this study to forecast future municipal and
industrial water demand consisted of preparing an estimate of future
population growth and applying the historical average consumptive use figures
to the population projection.

Population forecasts were prepared based on three growth scenarios. The
baseline scenario assumes that economic growth in the Study Area will have the
same relationship to national and world economic conditions as in the past and
that the net natural increase in population follows the U.S. Census Bureau's
Middle Series projection. The moderate scenario assumes slightly higher
economic growth due to higher energy prices and uses the average of the Census
Bureau's Middle and High projections of net natural increase in population.
The high scenario assumes a higher rate of economic growth, mainly due to
growth in the energy sector and uses the Census Bureau's high projection of
net natural increases in population.

Historic water use data combines municipal and light industrial uses and
therefore these categories were retained as a combined M&I demand forecast.
Other i ndustri a 1 water usage was determi ned separately by eva 1 uati ng the
potenti a 1 for increased mi ni ng development and addi ng that demand to the
present mining demand in the study area.

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