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<br />the passage over the Denver area of the long-lived <br />convective feature traceable in infrared satellite im- <br />agery all the way back to central New Mexico (Fig. 5), <br />The development of the bow echo in the weakly <br />sheared environment illustrated in Figs, 7c-d is par- <br />tially consistent with modeling simulations discussed <br />by Weisman and Davis (1998), The Weissman and <br />Davis study indicates that bow echoes can develop in <br />environments of weak vertical wind shear (e.g., <br />10 m s-I/2,5 Ian) where there is large CAPE (2500- <br />4500 J kg-I), However, such values of CAPE well <br />exceed those associated with the environment of the <br />FCL flood (868 J kg-I). The bow echo in this case did <br />not produce the strong surface winds that are often as- <br />sociated with such phenomena (Przbylinski 1995), It <br />did, however, exhibit a rear-inflow jet and weak cir- <br />culation features that resembled bookend vortices (a <br />lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation on the north <br />end and an anticyclonic circulation on the south; con- <br />firmed by dual-Doppler observations and discussed in <br />section 7b) consistent with previous studies of bow <br />echoes (Fujita 1978; Weisman 1993). <br />During the 4- h period represented in Figs, 7 a-d <br />there is a remarkable contrast between the convection <br />to the south of FCL, characterized by the mobile bow <br />echo, and that over FCL, characterized by quasi- <br />stationary convection, What accounted for this differ- <br />ence is unclear, However, convergence associated <br />with the Denver cyclone and the convective feature <br />visible on infrared satellite imagery (Fig, 5) crossing <br />the Denver area from the southwest may have helped <br />to initiate the transitory convective phenomenon in the <br />Denver area, The flow in the FCL area was not influ- <br />enced by the Denver cyclone as it arrived unimpeded <br />by this topographic circulation throughout the period <br />of the flood, However, it does appear to have been in- <br />fluenced somewhat by the bow echo that passed to the <br />south, Comparison of analyses at 2000 and 2100 MDT <br />(Figs, 7c-d) indicates an acceleration of the east- <br />southeasterly flow between these two times, appar- <br />ently in response to the surface downdraft outflow <br />behind the bow echo, Further, winds in the immedi- <br />ate vicinity of FCL became more easterly during this <br />period, implying an increase in the component of the <br />flow normal to the north-south-oriented foothills just <br />west of FCL. These changes increased the moisture <br />flux into the FCL area at approximately the same time <br />that the third, and heaviest, rainfall episode developed <br />(Fig,I), <br /> <br />Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society <br /> <br />6. The roles of preconditioning and <br />triggering in the storm environment <br /> <br />Surface upslope flow was the primary precondi- <br />tioner for the FCL storm because the high humidity <br />associated with the easterly winds meant that relatively <br />little lifting was necessary to raise boundary layer air <br />to its LFC at 690 hPa (compared to an LFC of 620 hPa <br />for the BT storm; Caracena et al, 1979), Unlike the BT <br />storm, where a front combined with orographic lift <br />provided the primary trigger for convection (Caracena <br />et al, 1979), the ouly apparent' trigger for the initial <br />area of convection associated with the FCL storm was <br />the foothills, For example, considering only the east- <br />erly component of the wind profile (approximately or- <br />thogonal to the foothills) presented in Fig. 6, it can be <br />inferred that the lowest 1-1.5 Ian of the troposphere <br />would have been lifted upon encountering the foothills <br />west ofFCL (Fig, 2), This situation contrasts somewhat <br />with the BT flood; namely, the lower LFC in the FCL <br />case would have permitted generation of heavy rain- <br />fall as the flow reached its first pronounced orographic <br />lift on the west side of FCL, Of course, it is too sim- <br />plistic to think of forcing throughout the storm ouly in <br />terms of the foothills orography, It is likely that other <br />factors such as outflow boundaries (which played a <br />role in cell initiation near FCL later in the event; cf, <br />section 7), latent and sensible heating gradients, and pres- <br />sure perturbations also played roles in the distribution of <br />convection and heavy rainfall along the Front Range, <br />In the few hours before the flood, the wind profiler <br />in Platteville, Colorado (about 45 Ian southeast of <br />FCL), registered a 5..,8 m S-I wind that veered from <br />southeasterly to southerly over the lowest 2 Ian of the <br />troposphere. Satellite-derived cloud-drift wind vector <br />fields (at approximately I Ian AGL) were calculated <br />from GOES-9 visible imagery for two periods on 28 <br />July (1400-1423 and 1700-1723 MDT; Figs, 8a,b) <br />using three images per period, Consistent with the <br />wind profiler data, at 1416 MDT (Fig. 8a) the c1oud- <br />drift winds also indicate the presence of a 5 m S-1 low- <br />level southeasterly wind, However, at 1715 MDT <br />(Fig, 8b) the cloud-drift winds suggest that the winds <br />backed slightly, becoming more east-southeasterly and <br />increasing in speed by 5 m S-I, The increase in upslope <br />flow over the plains of northeastern Colorado (also <br /> <br />3The nearest resolvable front was almost 700 kIn south when <br />the Fort Collins storm developed. It is possible that a proximate <br />boundary did exist but was not apparent in the conventional <br />observations. <br /> <br />199 <br />