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<br /> <br />4. PRELIMINARY DISCmmGE PROBABILITY AT GAGE SITES. <br /> <br />a. General. A preliminary discharge probability analysis was made of <br />Clear Creek at the U.S.G.S. gaging stations at Golden and Derby. The <br />analytical methods presented in Bulletin No. 17 published by the Water <br />Resources Council were used for each analysis. The results of these <br />studies are discussed in the following paragraphs. <br />b. Golden. Peak annual discharges recorded at the Golden gage during <br />the period 19l1 through 1976 were available for analysis. The 1956 event <br />ws omitted because it ws caused by a non-hydrologic failure of White <br />Reservoir located near Lawson, Colorado. The 1 August 1888 peak estimate <br />of 8,700 cubic feet per second measured at a site located 51 miles upstream <br />from the Golden gage was included in the analysis as an historical event. <br />A generalized skew coefficient of +1 obtained from a regional study of <br />similar streams in Colorado was used to help shape the distribution. The <br />resulting curve, with conf'idence limits and adjustments for length of <br />record, is shown on attachment 2. <br />c. Derby Gage. The period of record available at the. Derby gage was <br />1934 to 1976 except for omission of the 1956 event. There were no historic <br />data available at or near the station. The generalized skew coefficient of <br />+1 discussed in the Golden gage analysis was also used in the statistical <br />analysis of the Derby station flow data. The resulting curve along with <br />conf'idence limits and adjustments for length of record are shown on attach- <br />ment 3. <br />d. Reliability of Results. Although the discharge records at the Golden <br />and Derby stations are quite long, the reliability of using the statistical <br />parameters computed from these records for predicting the frequency of extreme <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />