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Last modified
11/23/2009 10:50:30 AM
Creation date
10/4/2006 8:59:29 PM
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Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Title
Precipitation Records and Flood-Producing Storms in Cheyenne Wyoming
Date
10/23/2003
Prepared For
Cheyenne
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />The log-Pearson Type III distribution is not recommended for analysis <br />of precipitation data by the National Weather Service. The National Weather <br />Service position is that skewness is too susceptible to influence of <br />sampling error to be a reliable parameter in describing storm data (Frank <br />Richards, National Weather Service, oral commun., 1987); however, the like- <br />lihood of sampling error having a significant effect on the calculated value <br />of skewness decreases with the length of the record being considered. There <br />is no theoretical reason (other than the previously described sensitivity of <br />the skewness to sampling error) for not using the log-Pearson Type III <br />distribution. In fact, the State of California Department of Water <br />Resources uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution for analysis of precip- <br />itation data, rather than the Gumbel distribution, in order to incorporate <br />the effects of the skewness of the data into their analyses. <br /> <br />Results <br /> <br />Ranked precipitation data for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 3D-minute, and 1-, 2-, <br />and 24-hour durations are plotted against recurrence interval in the top <br />half of figures 2a-2g. Data points representing the three or four largest <br />storms in the historical record are identified by year on the figures. The <br />updated precipitation frequency curve and associated 95 percent confidence <br />interval are superimposed over the data points so outliers may be identi- <br />fied. The horizontal axis on these figures is distorted such that data that <br />is described by a Gumbel distribution will plot as a straight line. The <br />same data, logarithmically transformed, is plotted in figures 3a-3g. <br /> <br />Two computer-fitted lines with associated 95 percent confidence <br />intervals--the previously defined and updated frequency curves--are <br />presented in the bottom halves of figures 2a-2g and 3a-3g. The curves show <br />how the estimate of the magnitude of a storm for a given recurrence interval <br />would be modified by inclusion of the August I, 1985, storm. <br /> <br />Two different straight lines can be fitted through the annual maximum <br />precipitation data points plotted on figures 2d-2f and 3e-3f. One line fits <br />the upper few data points, representing the more extreme events in the <br />record; the other line describes the remaining data points. The calculated <br />lines shown on each figure lie between these two lines. Two types of storms <br />occur in Wyoming, thunderstorms and general storms; however, no distinction <br />was made between the two types in creating figures 2 and 3. The data were <br />re-evaluated by identifying those storms that occurred during the maj or <br />thunderstorm months of July and August of each year. The two possible <br />fitted lines are quite distinct on figure 3e; therefore, these data were <br />chosen as a test ease. The data were divided into three groups: (1) Storms <br />occurring during May and June; (2) storms occurring during July and August; <br />and (3) storms occurring during September. (None of the I-hour annual <br />maximum precipitation occur,red during the period October through April.) <br />Each of the data groups was identified by a different symbol and was plotted <br />again on a copy of figure 3e. Except for the observation that the two <br />largest storms were thunderstorms that occurred during, the months of July <br />and August, no consistent relationship between occurrence and month could be <br />determined. Records were researched to determine whether the years during <br />which the largest storms occurred coincided with possible changes in either <br />the location, or construction, or both, of the precipitation gage. No pat- <br />tern with time could be established. <br /> <br />14 <br />
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