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<br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />I <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br />. <br /> <br />What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought? <br />Average Or Excess Precipitation? <br /> <br />The big "ii's": will EI Nino develop and how <br />strong will it be? <br />My opinion is that an Ei Nino period Is <br />developing and that it wlli hay,) a minor eflect <br />011 our 2002 weather other than impact the <br />monsoon. <br /> <br />Winter ~002/2003 should respond with <br />!)O(sollth) to .120%(l1or<h) snow pock from DC! <br />to Mar, . <br /> <br />How far could we look ahead if we <br /> <br />wanted? <br /> <br />Extended trend analyses of troe ring data <br /> <br />Eigc-!nvedor analyses of precipitation extreme <br />where basin average precipitation is > 2" <br />above 01' below normal <br /> <br />Physical cause/effe"t data base partitioning <br /> <br />Next year we'li sh,,," a "50 "year" experimental <br />outiook for Colorado precipitation "just lor <br /><he fun 01 it" or beltm fund it. <br /> <br /> <br />. COlorado Water Conservation Board <br />Dry Periods by River Basin <br />Basedonlhe24-monlhSlQl1dardPfI:lClpltlltIOFllndeJ((SPI) <br /> <br />::::::i'~': 'I' i" '~"'" '. 'f"'" 1 <br />"~'--'- I I ~ <br />,--.-- I I <br />--- 11'1 I <br />-,-- I IlII I <br />..-- II <br />:::..-:::- i. I I. I II <br />i I ( , , i " ; I , , ! I I I I 1 I I ~ I i I j j <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />9 <br />