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<br />- <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Agenda Item 2lf <br />July 24-25, 2000 Board Meeting <br />Page 3 of3 <br /> <br />8. The Upper Basin is not bound by these guidelines in any manner. <br />9. In any year the Secretary ofInterior declares a shortage, reparation for <br />increased supplies to MWD and Nevada will be made, but will not exceed 1.0 <br />maf in any given year. All debts are removed when a quantified or flood <br />control surplus is subsequently declared. <br />10. The interim criteria automatically terminate on December 31, 2016 or if <br />California fails to implement conservation measures totaling 280,000 AF by <br />January I, 2006 and 380,000 AF by January I, 20 I I. Operations return to the <br />R70 surplus strategy presently used upon termination. <br />II. Reclamation has instituted a policy on "Inadvertent Overruns" which is part of <br />the decree accounting process. <br /> <br />The likely impacts from implementing these interim criteria were evaluated using <br />CRSSEZ version 5\02\2000 and 93 hydrologic traces. The runs showed the following: <br /> <br />. On average, over the 93 traces, Lake Mead contents in 2016 would be <br />approximately 830,000 AF (8.2 feet in elevation) less. In the worst trace Lake <br />Mead was 1,013,000 AF (14.6 feet in elevation) less and dropped below both <br />minimum power and SNWS intake number I. <br />. On average, over the 93 traces, Lake Powell contents in 2016 would be <br />approximately 439,000 AF (4.0 feet in elevation) less. In the worst trace Lake <br />Powell was 549,000 AF (5.3 feet in elevation) less and dropped to elevation <br />3575 which is less than the minimum 602(a) storage level but still slightly <br />above minimum power (elevation 3570). The decreases are do to increased <br />equalization. <br />. Lower Basin demands were generally met. <br />· Groundwater banks in California and Arizona benefit by increased storage of <br />around 100,000 AF and in Nevada by around 50,000 AF. <br />· The probability of dropping below Lake Mead elevation 1083 is increased by <br />about 5% through 2040 after which you see no significant difference. <br />. There is a small increase in the risk of future shortages of around 5%. <br /> <br />Recommendation <br /> <br />While the EIS just released does not contain a preferred alternative, staff <br />recommends that we support a recommendation to the Secretary to implement a preferred <br />alternative in the record of decision as described above. <br />