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Agenda Item 21e July 24-25, 2000 Board Meeting Page 2 00 .;...~ '''11 Discussion - The decision on whether or not to declare a surplus for calendar year 2001 has been delayed until the August 16,2000 meeting of Colorado River Management Workgroup. The reasons for delaying the decision are: I. The R70 criteria historically used to make this determination will not likely result in a surplus declaration in 2001. 2. The Colorado River Management Workgroup would like additional time to see what the actual runoff into the reservoirs will be and to get some sense of what the summer monsoons might contribute in the way of reservoir inflow. 3. The Colorado River Management Workgroup would like to see if the seven basin states, the Bureau of Reclamation and others can reach agreement on interim surplus criteria that would allow for a surplus declaration in 200 I. If interim surplus criteria were adopted as presently proposed, a "Full Domestic Surplus" would be declared in 2001 based on the Lake Mead content being above elevation 1145. If interim surplus criteria are not adopted or runoff is not sufficient to declare a surplus under the R70 strategy presently used and agreed to, the Secretary ofInterior will still be faced with a very difficult decision. Even absent interim surplus criteria or improved runoff conditions, in my estimation it will still be very difficult for the Secretary of the Interior not to declare a surplus in 200 I for the following reasons. I. There is a need for additional water in the lower basin of approximately 700,000 AF, of which 450,000 AF is needed to keep MWD's Colorado River Aqueduct full. 2. The reservoirs are relatively full and given average inflow in 200 I Lake Powell will need to equalize with Lake Mead. Releases from Powell are presently estimated to be 9.450 MAF in WY 2001 with average inflow. 3. Based on existing conditions and historic record, there is around a 30% chance of a flood control release from Lake Mead above downstream requirements sometime during calendar year 200 I. 4. Any January 1,2001 inflow forecast of 120% or greater should start triggering flood control releases above downstream requirements and approximately 125% of average will require a 19,000 cfs release for the month of January 2001. 5. Given present uses and reservoir storage, there is little increased risk of shortages with or without declaring a surplus of 700,000 AF or less in WY 2001. e Attached is a portion of the July, 2000 24-month study for your reference. e