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<br /> <br />Colorado Drou ht Watch <br /> <br />Page 5 <br /> <br /> <br />NOAA Drought Outlook <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />Seasonal U. S. Drought Outlook <br />Through May 2002 <br />Released Febl'uary 15, 2002 <br /> <br />(j)'" <br />" " ~ <br />{ , 'J <br />..f <br /> <br />~~_. <br />,~r ~ <br /> <br />~~SSlble D'."ph!. <br />Evpansion " <br />,(..I <br />""- <br />"'I> <br />C> <br /> <br /> <br />Slow Improvement <br />Likely' <br />So e Water shortage <br />Persist <br /> <br />Depicts general, large. scale trends based on subjectiv'e~ derived <br />prob abilities guided by nun'Brous indic ators, including short and <br />long-range statistical and dynanical forecasts. Short-term eve Ills-- such as <br />individual storms.-cannot be accurate~ for ecast nure than a f€IW days in <br />advance, so use caution if using this outlook for applicationHuch as <br />crops-that c an be affected by such events. Initial drought areas--shown <br />schematically-are approximated fromthe Drought M:mitor. Forweek~ <br />updates on drought, see the latest Drought tllbnitor map and tel<!. <br /> <br />,( <br /> <br />LJ <br /> <br />NOAA Seasonal Assessment: <br /> <br />"Slow improvement <br />for this region is <br />expected in next <br />several months, but <br />drought is likely to <br />continue... " <br /> <br />Drought has recently expanded southward into Colorado and western Ne- <br />braska. Slow improvement for this region is expected in the next several <br />months, but drought is likely to continue, especially over Montana and <br />Wyoming, where the drought is most severe. In the southern Plains, re- <br />cent rain and snow has boosted moisture supplies, and general improve. <br />ment is expected in coming months where drought still lingers, including <br />southwestern Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, west Texas, eastern New <br />Mexico and southeastern Colorado. In contrast, recent abnormal dryness <br />has led to drought development in southern Utah, northern Arizona, <br />