WMOD00218

• Contract/Permit #: #97-3
• Applicant: Western Kansas Groundwater
• Project Name: Kansas Weather Modification
• Date: 1/1/1997
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

Interestingly, if most of the non-seeded hail-days which list
hail claims didn't immediately follow a significantly hail-damaged
day, then the hail-days most likely showed low-number hail claims.
For instance: there were 5 days in which only 1 hail claim was
submitted on a date upon which no seeding was performed. Similarly,
3 days showed 2 claims, 4 days had 3 claims and 4 days with 4 claims
for a t9tal of 16 days, or 64%, of the 25 non-seeded hail-days; all
of these days, combined, were responsible for 39 claims---about l%
of the total yearly claims. This is not to imply that all daily
small numbers of hail claims submitted on days in which no seeding
was performed are incorrect but, we do know an unknown, significant
percentage of them are incorrect. Most severe storms tend to travel
as they are producing hail and it is unlikely such a~high number of
days produce storms with such few claims; admittedly, it does happen
infrequently. Often, after major hail-days , either the day is
followed by another major hail day, or by nothing. Despite all the
problems with daily crop-hail insurance damage claim data, their
sheer numbers do provide one means of comparing among high number
claim-days during the season and among past seasons.

In prior years, we've noted that hail damage in Western Kansas
tends to track the year-to-year trend of the entire state when
compared to a previous year. For this reason comparisons made only
between one season and a previous one must be done with caution.
This year, statewide, there were 12,580 claims submitted, 35% fewer
than the 19,239 claims submitted in 1996. Table 2 and Figure 5 show
the distribution of hail within the state. In the southern part of
the WKWMP target area there were 2,165 claims, or 59% fewer claims
than in 1996. Last year the southern area accounted for 27.4% of
total state claims, whereas, this year the southern target area had
only 17.2% of the total. Granted, in 1997 the southern target had
one less county (Stevens) than in 1996, however, if Stevens' hail
claims w~re added to ours this year, the total would amount to 22%
of this year's number of statewide claims. In a target area-to-
target area comparison, there were 3,612 claims in 1997 compared to
5,265 claims in 1996, about 31% fewer claims, despite our expanded
target area size. This is good news; however, it's difficult to
make meaningful conclusions by using such a comparison. The 1996
season was an aberration in terms of frequency of storms and storm
damage...probably the worst one in most Western Kansans' memory.

This season 6 of Kansas' 10 most-claimed counties lay in
Western Kansas, 4 in Northwest Kansas and 2 in Southwest. Three such
counties were full county participants, two were partial county
participants, whereas, one heavily damaged county did not
participate (Trego). Ford County rated second highest in the state
with 644 claims, Sherman was a close third with 642 and Thomas,
sixth highest with 390. The combined total number of claims for
Sherman, Sheridan and Thomas was second lowest for the past 5
seasons ending in 1997.

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