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<br />. Comparison ofmodel-predict~d precipitation (control) versus seeded precipitation <br />revealed that there was essentially no difference b~tween the 86-day sced and <br />control average totals. <br /> <br />The report listed the following possible reasons for the lack of differenccs betwecn seed <br />and control pr~cipitation: <br /> <br />. The model-predicted seedability could be real; however. because of the model <br />OHr prediction bias and low amounts of supercooled liquid water content. this <br />possibility is doubtful. <br /> <br />. There is circumstantial evidence that the model-prcdicted supercooled liquid <br />water content is too lo\v. thereby underestimating seedability. <br /> <br />. A low-level wann t~mperature bias in the model results in delayed Agl nuclei <br />activation and reduced eOectivencss of the seeding agent in the model. <br /> <br />Wyoming is using a state-oF-the art high resolution model known as \VRF for guidance <br />and evaluation of their five-year pilot project. It has not been demonstrated. even with this <br />model. whether simulations arc accurate enough to discern seeding effects from natural <br />precipitation. or to even accurately predict the transport and dispersion of seeding material. <br /> <br />.4.0 Potcntiallncreases in Precipitation and Runoff <br /> <br />Information provided in Sections 7. 9. 10 and II can be combincd to provide estimates of <br />potential increases in precipitation from existing and potential operational areas in the upper <br />Colorado River Basin. It is concluded that I)roperll designed and conducted winter cloud <br />seeding programs can incre:lse Ihe winler season precipitalion in selected mountainous <br />are:lS of the UI)per :md Lower Colorado Rinr Basin in the range of 510 15%, ,,,"ith tin <br />:,nrage of .0%. <br /> <br />Historical Studies <br /> <br />Earlier studies have been conducted of the potential for increases in precipitation and <br />runoff in the Upper Colorado River Drainage. Some of the rclevant studics 3rc listed in Table 3. <br />taken from Iluntcr et al. 2005. <br /> <br />Table 3. Pre,"ious water yield estimates from cloud seeding in the Colorado Rinr <br />Basin <br /> <br />Source D:,tes \Vater Yield (Aerc-ftl <br />Bureau of Reclamation 1967-1968 1.870.000 <br />Stanford Research Institute 1971-1972 1.150.000* <br />North American Weather 1972-1973 1.315.000 <br />Consultants (T\\c1ve Basin <br />Studv\ <br />