WMOD00150

• Contract/Permit #: #98-1
• Applicant: Western Kansas Groundwater Management
• Project Name: Western Kansas Weather Modification Program
• Date: 4/28/2002
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Proof of Public Notice

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WESTERN KANSAS WEATHER MODIFICATION
PROGRAM
P.O. BOX 254 Lakin, KS 67860
Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
e-mail: hailman@pldcomInternet: http://users.pld.com/haiIman

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
No. 2002-4

For the period May I I - May 17, 2002

General Interest: Any drought relief in sight?

Dry here and wet there. This was certainly the case over the past three weeks as L'1c drought
conditions across much of Western Kansas continued to worsen at the same time flooding rains
occurred from wave after wave of strong thunderstorms from Eastern Kansas to Illinois. The way
in which the significant storm systems played out was interesting. On many occasions, the initial
development of the thunderstorms that brought the pounding rains to the eastern part of our state
developed just east of Western Kansas. Western Kansas, for the most part, has been on the back
side, fair weather side, of surface fronts and/or drylines which developed these copious rainfall
producing thunderstorms. On numerous occasions, the demarcation lines where initial storms
developed were just a few miles east of the eastern border of the WKWMP target area. It was
evident that the rains to our east did not come without a devastating price to some areas as large
hail, high winds and tornadoes often accompanied the storms. Some hope for the area did come
during the last half of last week as organized atmospheric dynamics needed for storm
development came together over the area allowing for the regions first episode of semi-decent
rainfall this year.

Traditionally, the WKWMP is most active during the month of July with June the second highest
month for seeding operations. Although the WKWMP is most active during thesl<.ll1onths, it does
not necessarily indicate a direct relationship to substantial rainfall instances over the area but
rather a seasonal increase in hailstorms that need hail suppression treatment. However, when
there is the potential for hail producing thunderstorms, there are usually higher rainfall amounts
from those storm systems if they develop. Also, the increase in WKWMP seeding activity
denotes increases in storm instances over that period of time. We 2Ie hopeD!! that the next two
months will continue the yearly trend of increased storm activity, as June and July are
traditionally the two best months for heavy rainfall thunderstorm activity,

Although long term predictions are less accurate than short term predictions, climate-based
meteorological models have become more advanced over the years and generally perform well
enough to make "general" predictions regarding seasonal outlooks for temperature and
precipitation. The latest outlook, released May 16th, from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC),
calls for "drought likely to improve, impacts ease" for all of Western Kansas for the period May
16th through August. Interestingly, the prediction indicates that the most favored region where
the drought conditions will likely improve is only over Western Kansas. Other areas where the
drought has a strong grip (most of the western U.SA, South Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi)
will likely remain within a substantial drought. Readers with Internet capability may wish to view
the actual forecast from the CPC web-site available at:

http://www .cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/ expert _ assessment/seasonal_ drought.html