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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:58 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:13:30 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Sponsor Name
MWDSC
Project Name
Weather Modification White Paper
Title
Weather Modification for Precipitation Augmentation and Its Potential Usefulness to the Colorado River Basin States
Prepared For
Colorado River 7 Basin States
Prepared By
Tom Ryan - Metro Water District of Southern California
Date
10/1/2005
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />Appendix B <br /> <br />100 times as much silver into the atmosphere in many parts of the country, and silver <br />from seeding is far exceeded by individual exposure from tooth fillings. Accumulation in <br />the soil, vegetation and surface runoff have not been large enough to measure above <br />natural background. A common societal attitude toward WxMod is that one is <br />"tampering with nature" and some mistrust has resulted over the decades. Many such <br />opponents are unaware that mankind has been inadvertently modifying the weather to <br />great extent, especially since the industrial revolution. <br /> <br />Statistical Evaluation. Assessments of seeding effects most often consist of comparisons <br />of the amount of precipitation measured in a target area with that from a control area. <br />The issue is how to determine if a change occurred, using measurements taken in a <br />watershed in a period before and during seeding. Similarly, one may take measurements <br />in adjacent "control" watersheds to account for spatial differences arising from seeding. <br />Either method has to deal with biases. A more statistically robust design, known as a <br />cross-over uses two similar fixed areas. During each test case, one area is selected for <br />treatment through a random process while the other serves as the control. <br /> <br />Replication. Since there is so much variability in the natural world, predictability and <br />consistency of the application and effectiveness of techniques is difficult to determine. <br />There are additional difficulties owing to variability in wind, temperature, and other <br />factors. There is also seasonal variation; for example, summer is more spatially and <br />temporally variable in precipitation than winter. <br /> <br />Transport and Dispersion. One of the most significant uncertainties is the transport and <br />dispersion of the seeding aerosols across project areas. Results from studies have <br />revealed that most of the precipitation faIling in the targets during seeding periods has' not <br />been impacted by the seeding process. New fully automated ground-based generators <br />can be located in often poorly accessible locations in high mountain terrain. <br /> <br />Cloud and precipitation microphvsics issues. The following are outstanding cloud and <br />precipitation microphysical issues: <br /> <br />. Background concentration, sizes, and chemical composition of aerosols that <br />participated in the cloud physics process <br /> <br />. Cloud water nucleation processes as they relate to chemical composition, sizes, and <br />concentrations of hygroscopic aerosol particles <br /> <br />. Ice nucleation (primary and secondary) <br /> <br />. Evolution of the droplet spectra in clouds and processes that contribute to spectra <br />broadening and the onset of coalescence <br /> <br />. Relative importance of drizzle in precipitation processes <br /> <br />-2- <br />
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