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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:55 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:13:12 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Applicant
Arlin Super, William Woodley, John McPartland
Sponsor Name
Denver Water
Project Name
Cloud Seeding Analysis
Title
Silver-In-Snow Evaluation of Cloud Seeding Effectiveness for Snow Pack Ehancement in Colorado During the 2002/03 Season
Prepared For
Denver Water
Prepared By
Super, Woodley, Heimbach
Date
6/16/2003
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />up\\ind and over Colorado mountain barriers arc pruperly seeded. increases in snowfall can be <br />anticipated. Several examples of adequate T&D over the Grand Mesa. from both aircratl and high- <br />altitude ground-~d Agl gen~rators. wcre publish~d by Holroyd et al. (IQ881. Observations of <br />S(.-eding-cauSL-d increases in ic~ crystal concentnttioru; at cloud levels over the same barrier were <br />shown by Super and Roe (IQ88). Some ofthcsc shon-term. physicaJl~'-bas(.-d S(.'t.'ding experiments <br />inereased snov.fall at the ground. Similar "physical experiments" were conducted in central Utah as <br />swnrnarizcd by Super (l999a). <br /> <br />"Tne magnitude of sc.--cding-induccd sno\\ incJ"e"dSC..'S on a seasonal basis is still open to <br />qU~1ion. and likely ranges from trivial to perhaps 10-15 percent the laner for properly conducted <br />seeding. According to the: American Meteorological Society (1998). "Th\.'re is statistical evidence <br />that precipitation from supercooled orographic clouds (clouds that develop owr mountains) has <br />been seasonally increased by about 10%. The physical cauSt.'-and-cITcct relationships. however. <br />have not oc>en fully documented. Nevertheless. the potential lor such increases is supported by <br />field measurements and numerical model simulations." Rut much of the statistical evidence is <br />based on questionable target-control applications discussed in the previous sc.'Ction. <br /> <br />lne magnitude of any" seeding-induced change in snov.fall is highly dependent upon the <br />s..."Cding methodology employed. While the la)-man may consider any fonn of cloud seeding to be <br />similar in application and rt."'Sulls. that common view is unrealistic. ^ \\ide range of Agl (and other <br />agents) set,.-ding deliver:" methods and release rates have been used. Then: is no reason to expect <br />them 10 all produce ~imilar results. Silver iodide may be released from aircraft. using acetone <br />generators. burn-in-plaec p)-TOtl..'Chnic narcs or \"Crtical drop nares. More common and Ics.<; <br />expensive methods employ ground-hao;ed AgJ generators. Some projects USl..' radio-controlled <br />high altitude ground-based generators 10 increase the chances of successful T &D of Agl into <br />orographic clouds. ~10re commonly. projects have used manually..oJ>Crdtcd ground-based <br />generators at relatively low elevations where local residents arc available to operate them. This <br />latter approach is the most economical. but has the greatest uncertainties concerning T &D into <br />clouds several miles dO\\l1\\;nd. and thousands of feet above. the generators. <br /> <br />Each seeding method has a v.idc range of available Agl release rd.tl.."'S depending on <br />individual seeding generator (or flare) output and crosswind spacing between generators (or <br />nares). Obviously. higher release rates and closer spacing bct\\-.cen generators result in higher <br />operational costs. With all this variability among projects. it would be quite surprising for <br />resulting snowfall enhancements 10 be similar. Yet. similar seasonal increases. in the 5-20 <br />percent range. have commonly been claimed whatever the seeding methodology. This limited <br />range is difficult to reconcile with physical reasoning. ~1on.'O\'Cr. lack of snowfall augmentation <br />is rarely reported by operational projects whatever seeding method is used. <br /> <br />Weather moditication scientists arc well a\\1l.fC that Agl ctTl.'Cti\"enes.s is strongly dependent <br />upon cloud temperature. Little physical (as opposed to statistical) evidence exists that Agl seeding <br />has produced ml..-aningful 5no\\1'311 \\hen treated SL \\' cloud temperatures \\crc wanner than _sac <br />to _9C:C. In order to be etlt.'Cti\'e. the Sl."t.-ding material must be routinely transponed into sufficiently <br />cold SI.\V cloud and dispersed through large \"olurnes of cloud. in sufficiently high concentrations. <br />Both ca1culalions and observations have ShO\\ll that concentrations of ctfective artificial ice nuclei <br /> <br />; <br />
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