Laserfiche WebLink
<br />Mountains are highly successful. Tne evaluation results for the Lake Almanor. Uppcr American, <br />Mokelumnc River, Kings River, Kern River, Kaweah River and Eastcrn Sierra operational <br />secding programs suggest \vith grcat statistical confidence that seeding incrcascd the strcamflow <br />in these watersheds by sii"..able amounts. Taking into account the fact thai the evaluation targets <br />chosen to rcpresent these watershcds may not have been the locations best targeted by the <br />sccding, it is possible that thc actual effects of seeding and their statistical support may be even <br />larger than that presented in this papcr. <br />d. It was found that the seeding effectiveness in the 7 watersheds has been decreasing <br />since about 1990, give or take a year or two. <br />e. It was found that the meteorological conditions upon which the seeding procedures <br />used in the opcrational sceding programs have bcen changing so as to produce a general <br />wanning of the stann cnvironment. It is speculated that this wanning may have rendercd the <br />ground~releascd silver iodidc less and less effcctive over time, thereby contributing to the <br />observcd decrease in seeding effcctiveness. It is spcculated that the gcneral ".:anning of the stoml <br />environment may be a contributing factor to the decreasc in seeding eflt."Ctiveness since about <br />1990 but Ilot necessarily the only contributing factor. Furthcr study of this and other potential <br />causes mentioncd earlier is necdcd to clarify and possibly correct thc problem, <br />f. Morc in-depth physical studies should be conducted of this and other potcntial <br />contributing factors to the dccrcase in secding eflectivcncss with the aim of making adjustments <br />to the secding procedures. ifpossiblc, that restorc the seeding ctTectivencss ofthesc programs to <br />thc sllccessfullcvels they achieved earlier. <br />g. The findings in this papcr does not, by itselC constitute "scicntitic proof' that sccding <br />of orographic clouds incrcases precipitation. snowpack and subsequcnt streamllow; however, <br />they ccrtainly constitute "ample evidencc" to justify operational application of this sceding <br />technology (Gars tang et. a!., 2005). The estimatcd ctTects of secding should be of considcrable <br />value to the sponsors of the operational cloud seeding programs in detennining the past, present <br />and futurc value of their cloud seeding operations according to risk critcria used in their business <br />operations, As Boe et. al.(2004) state, ..... if a potential sponsor of a cloud sceding program, <br />following careful delibcration, decided they had an 80% likelihood of obtaining a 10% increasc <br />in prccipitation that would yield a benefit/cost ratio of 10/1, they would probably choose to <br />support the program," According to Hcnderson (2003a) all increase in streamllO\v of only 1.5% <br />in the Sierra Ncvada J\tountain \..'atcrsheds would yield a benefit/cost ratio of 1011. <br /> <br />9. Future work <br />The results of this preliminary evaluation ofthc 7 operational cloud seeding programs in <br />the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California provide inccntive to do more in-depth statistical and <br />physical studies to \'alidate and extend the findings. One might suspect and qucstion the results <br />of the evaluation of one operational program: however, thc results of the cvaluation of 7 <br />operational programs showing consistently positive seeding effects is compelling and call not be <br />ignored. The magnitude of thc increases in strcamflow due to secding suggcsted by this <br />preliminary study are, howcver, largcr than one would expect from the results of pre....ious <br />physical studies of the seedability of orographic clouds over the Sierra Nevada Mountains of <br />California and of the problems encountered in the transport and dilTusion of the seeding material <br />to thc right place and at the right time in the clouds (see. e,g.. ~Iarwit/. 1987: Reynolds and <br />Dennis. 1986. Reynolds. 1988. Deshler et. a!., 1990, Reynolds. 1996). Consequently, new <br />statistical and physical studies arc needed to clarify the results and to resolve the uncertainties, <br /> <br />47 <br />