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<br />midway from (he liAS to the TAR on Ihe west edge <br />of the plateau top. GTR near Ihe TAR. and GSO I <br />kIn due south (crosswind) ofGTR. These three are <br />referred to as the "core" gauges, located wilhin 2 km <br />or less of one another. The downwind gauge GO!" <br />had a P-value of 0.09. somewhat suggestive of <br />se~ing effectiveness. but not meeting the 0.05 <br />critenon. These test results, from the entire EU <br /> <br />populalion, provide a strong statistical suggestion that <br />propane seeding increased the "seasonal" 3.5 month <br />experimental period snowfall on the windward slope <br />and upwind portion of the plateau (Op. The "seeding <br />signal" is less obvious althe gauge furthest <br />downwind which had a lower likdihood ofroutine1y <br />being under the seeding plume because of variations <br />in wind direction. <br /> <br />Table I. Summar)" for all a~'allable 91\ [Us wilh no partitioning: <br />47 pairs. 50 seeded and 411 nomcedoo [Us, <br /> <br /> Pooled R,- <br /> Target- randomized l-tailcd95% <br />Target GNO Sample I-tailed Conlidence <br />Gauge Correlation \1DR P-~alue Inh:rvll[ <br />GSC 0.85 1.22 0.06 1.02.:r; <br />GTR 0.88 1.22 O.O~ 1.04 - 'Y. <br />GSa 0.89 1.23 O.oJ 1.06- or: <br />GDN 0.84 1.21 0.09 0.98- x <br /> <br />\\'hereas a significance test can implYlhet'e isa <br />seeding effect, contidence intervals can quantify the <br />possible range of efTect which seeding may cause. <br />Rerandomization.the repetilive simulation of the <br />experiment using the same data but with dilTerenl <br />random seeding decisions. was required for the <br />deri\ation of P-\alues and contidence limits shown in <br />Table I. The same set of 1000 rerandomized :>.tDRs <br />used to deri\'e the P.values was applied to estimation <br />of confidence limits. For example. a test of <br />significance using u = 0.05 might estimate from the <br />MOR thatlreatmcnt provided an additional 10'% <br />SWE. The upper limit ofthecontidence interval for <br />the l.tailed application, which assumes sCt.-ding can <br />increase but not decrease snowfall, cannot be <br />specified. lienee, upper limits in the lables are given <br />by the "-,:;" symbol meaning infinilY. The lower <br />limits for the core gauges in Table I range from 1.02 <br />to 1.06 corresponding to minimum precipilation <br />increases of2. 4 and 6%. respectively. The lower <br />limit for gauge GDl'\ is 0.98 meaning thai it is <br />possible that decreased precipitation could haH <br />resulted there, but by no more than 2%. That gauge <br />also has Ihe highest P.value (lowest significance). <br />All the confidence interval values are valid althe <br />95% level. It is reiterated that these are minimum <br />possible \alues and actual increases may be <br />substantially higher. The sample ~IDRs range <br />bel\n-en ].21 and ].23 implying about 22'l'~ more <br />precipitation for Ihe st.'eded EUs than for the <br />nonsecded control EUs for Ihe enlire available <br />sample populalion of98 EUs ",-ith no panitionmg. <br /> <br />Paffitionin~ <br /> <br />Applying stalisticallcsts to EU groups which meet <br />one or more meteorological crileria can give insight <br />to Ihe crt.odence of physical hypotheses. This is <br />tenned "partitioning" or "stratitication." The most <br />obvious and physically reasonable partitioning of the <br />available EUs was by liAS wind direction. :-';0 real <br />seeding elTect can exist if the wind did no! transpon <br />the seeding plume owr the target gauges. <br />Considerable prior plume lracing with tracer gas and <br />AgI was conducted with the same liAS seeding site. <br />primary intended targel, TAR. and its associalt.-d <br />gauge. CiTR. These earlier dala sets were analyzed in <br />delail for this experiment. They showed that plumes <br />released at the liAS when winds there were trom <br />about 170 10 270 deg routinely reached the <br />GTRff A R area with Iypical .2 km across.the-wind <br />plume widths by that downwind distance. Plumes <br />released when liAS winds had any northerly <br />component did not targelthat area but were <br />transported funher south. The ob\ious wind panilion <br />was tor liAS median wind direClions of270 deg true <br />or less. as the lowest EU value wa.~ 169 deg. <br /> <br />This wind direclion panition provided a lotal of 32 <br />pairs. and a total of 35 seeded plus 34 nonseeded or <br />69 EUs. The target-control correlations of Table 2 <br />are almost as high as those of Table I. Strongly <br />suggesti\'e P-valuC'S of 0.03 and 0.05 are shown in <br />Table 2 for gauges GSO and GTR. respectl\e1y. <br />Oo"'-llwind gauge GDN had a respectable 0_06 and <br /> <br />7 <br />