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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:38 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:11:56 PM
Metadata
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Template:
Weather Modification
Sponsor Name
Utah Department of Natural Resources
Title
Propane Cloud Seeding Expiriment Overview: Wasatch Plateau, Utah, During Winter of 2003-2004
Prepared For
Utah DNR
Prepared By
Dr. Arlin Super and James A. Heimbach, Jr.
Date
3/1/2005
State
UT
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />might be expc:cted that a real seeding signal would be <br />more evident during light to moderate natural <br />sno.....falls than during hea\)' snowfalls, these results <br /> <br />are n:markable In view of considerably weaker <br />associations (correlations) with the control gauge. <br /> <br />Table J. HAS dlrL'Clion panltion <"" 270 deg eombincd .....ilh GNQ SV.'E<= 0.05 inch: <br />24 pair;. 30 seeded and 25 nonscedcd <br /> <br /> Pooled R,- <br /> Target- randomiLL-d l-taik-d<)5% <br /> G!\:O Samp!.: I-tailed Confidence <br />Gauge Correlation ~IDR P-\'alue [nlenal <br />GSC 0.52 1.30 0.10 1.16-x: <br />GTR 0.67 1.32 0.04 UN-x: <br />GSO 0.58 1045 0.01 I.2I-x <br />GON 0,60 1.51 0.02 1.20-x <br /> <br />Somewhat encouraging suggestions resulted from <br />other single and dual partitions mentioned above but <br />not presented in detail here. There were suggestions <br />that ell"ective seeding might have been associated <br />with the presenceofSLW as detected by icing <br />sensors. with wamler than median liAS temperatures <br />and .....ith less than median liAS wind spc:eds. But <br />none of these tested partitions provided results as <br />convincing as those already noted. It is suspected <br />that tack of a significant seeding signal for SL W <br />(icing) partitions was partial due to limitations in the <br />icing rate sensors discussed in the references. -'lost <br />of the resulting statistical suggestions should be <br />regard.;-d more as tantalizing than as conclusive. The <br />main underlying problem IS very likely the limited <br />population sizes tested when any two partitions .....ere <br />app1i.;-d. If any actual s.xding effects existed. the <br />available sample size was too limited to det.;-ct them <br />to an acceptable level of statistical significance. Such <br />results should be consid.;-red inconclusive, neither <br />demonstrating an actual seeding etT.;-ct /lor the lack of <br />olle. Only testing a larger population than av'ailable <br />would alTer the possibility of providing more <br />definitive results. <br /> <br />The most solid and imp(lnam results of the <br />statistical testing can be: summarized as follows. It is <br />highly likely that a real seeding e1Tect resultoo. from <br />propane seeding when transport wmds carried the <br />seeding plume mer the target gauges. Overall. <br />seeded units provided at least 20'% more snowfall <br />than nons.xded units. Based on those results. it was <br />hypothetically estimated that if all hours containing <br />the 69 EUs had bl,.'t'n operationally seeded. the overall <br />precipnation increase would have been 80io in the <br />Mseasonal" precipitation averaged for gauges GSC <br />and GTR for the 3.5 month expc:rimental period. <br />This result was provided both by considering the <br /> <br />mean residuals from the pairs testing and from the <br />mean double ratio testing .;-mphasized above. <br /> <br />Case Stud~' Anal~'sis <br /> <br />A case study analysis was perfomled for three <br />adjoining EUs on 21 December 2003. with two of the <br />EUs nonseeded and th.;- middle EU seeded. By <br />chanc.;-. this particular seeded EU coincided .....ith a <br />time period having minimal natural snowfall. seldom <br />obser\'Cd during other EUs. The adjoining nonseeded <br />EUs had considerably more natural snowlall than the <br />s.;-.;-ded EU. both with highest accumulations at the <br />control gauge. But that gauge received only 0.009 <br />inch during th.;- seeded period while targ.;-t gauges had <br />2 to"; times as much SWE. increasing with distance <br />downwind ofth.;- seeding site. The most convincing <br />evidence that sc.;-ding produced much of the increase <br />was provid.;-d by examination of 2D-C probe ice <br />panicle images from TAR. Th.;-s.;- were very similar <br />to those published lTom pulsed seeding experiments <br />conducted during earlier winters. As seen in Figure <br />5. bas.;-d on the :m-c probe observations of <br />individual ice crystals. the see-ded images .....ere <br />relatively small and generally unifonn in size and <br />shape. They were in much higher concentrations <br />than observed during the adjoining nonseeded <br />pc:riods which had much greater natural snowfall <br />rates. The first nonseeded period would be c1assilied <br />as having heavy snowfall rates and the last as having <br />moderate rates. Even with conservative assumptions <br />Iktailed in the references. it was estimated that <br />seeded snowfall rates exceeded 0.010 inch per hour at <br />the core target gauges and likely approached twice <br />that rate at the do.....nwind gauge. Such seeding- <br />produced precipitation rates are in good agreement <br />with earlier cas.;-s study e'l;pc:rim.;-nts in Utah and <br />elsewhere in the Intermountain West. <br /> <br />. <br />
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