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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:13 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:10:45 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Applicant
Western Weather Consultants
Project Name
San Juan
Date
11/1/1984
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Application
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<br />Appendix to Question No. 11 <br /> <br />F"r"..... <br /> <br />'tf'c Pro>fl4cc <br />L...~,..I..J h, <br /> <br />Lf "1/,<:. I""'f".....h l:[ 51"',..... E......t....,...,<::......._-.-f.. <br />Lt!-o.. L...J, wr!..s bc~ 1::.1"::...' I Lf7~ <br /> <br />The computations of increases due to se~dinb were cx~mlned <br />to see if the augmented amount tended to be relatively large when the <br />natural snowfall was large, o~ conversely. This set ot datu is shown in <br />Figure 14(a). Although limited in size, the sample indicates that there <br />is a positive relationship. The natural snowfall and amounts produced by <br />B~eding have a linear correlation of 0.6. The increases were also co~uted <br />as s percentage of the natural snowfall. Fi.gure 14(b) shows that this per- <br />centSl;e is not dependent on natural snowfall.: Thf:!refore. the sadie percent- <br />BEe snow augmentation may be used in both low and hi~h years of natural <br />snowfall. <br /> <br />We ~y sUmmarl~e the dls~usslon of snowlall augmentation <br /> <br />as follo""'s: <br /> <br />(1) The most probabLe increase in snowfall at elevations <br />above 8000 ft that can be re31i%cd by s~cding 15 in <br />the range from approximately 20 to 25 p~rcent, as _ <br />an average figure fOT the basin over a period of at <br />least several years. In our judgment the chance <br />that subsequent, iong-term data will show that this <br />figure is less than 10 percent or great~r than 35 <br />percent is less than one in ten. This assumes that <br />state of the art cloud seeding is done in an optilllal <br />lIlanner. If it is not done optimally th~n the percent <br />increase in snowfall will be less. <br /> <br />(2) The increases are produced mninly by changing hours <br />in which little snowfall ~ould have occurred <br />naturally into hours of significant snowfall. As <br />a result, the days with relatively large amounts of <br />snow (e.r.. amounts greater than one half inch of <br />water equiv31ent) w111 be one and n h~lf to twice as <br />frequent (see figure II). <br /> <br />(3) .Thc proportional incre~se in snowfall produced by <br />seed.1n~ will be the same whether the season ls lI'et <br />or dry. <br /> <br />(4) The kernel of the effect of seeding is that it will <br />make the snowfall amounts of the target area similar <br />to the natural snowfall that exists at elevations <br />500 to 1000 ft higher in the mountains. <br /> <br />As a simple but reasonably accurate rule for computing <br />~u_~~nted seasonal snowfall, one may apply percent~gc increases to the <br />sea.:.o~al Snowfall averages. However, the percentage incrc3scs that <br />should be applled to thc differcnt localltles are not well known at this <br />time. In the light of diSCUSSions wlth Professor Grant and our cOlllputa- <br />Uons given c3rlier, lI'e selected the percentage Increases shown In <br />Fll;ure 15 3S the PlOSt probable estimates. These percentage Increases <br />were then applied to the seasonal snowfall of Figure 7 to obtain the <br />average snowfall (water equi.valent) that would be produced by seeding <br />methods that C:ln be implemented within the next five years (Figure 16'- <br />This map, and the h..o that follow, were used extenSively in the study to <br />('stim~tc hydruloglC COlHlitions and the effects on ecological, social, ~nd <br />{'CUIlOmlC sy.:ncms; there/ore. tlley arc C1Itremel}' important. <br />
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