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<br />- <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />- -- <br /> <br />-- <br /> <br />Executive Summary (23 February 2004) <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over last June - is still trying to make a eomeback. <br />Weak El Nino conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I would not be <br />surprised to see El Nino return in force later this year. Ilowever, it is not likely that it will play <br />a role before spring is over. <br /> <br />2. Except for a dry spell in mid-January, 2004 has seen a fairly active stormtraek over Colorado, <br />with a eontinued preference for the western and southern mountains to receive the lion's share <br />of the moisture. The next two weeks should see more of the same, with the best chance for <br />Front Range moisture over the coming weekend. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for April through June 2004, all but northwestem Colorado show <br />slightly welter-than-norn1al odds, an upward trend compared to the last two forecasts. Since <br />April is often the snowiest month of the year in the higher Front Range elevations, there still is <br />hope for a belated recovery beyond April 1st. <br /> <br />4. !3ottomline: As anticipated, the last few winter months have not been favorable for the north- <br />central mountains of Colorado. With the establishment ofa southern stonntrack from California <br />to Texas, there is still hope for at least near-normal moisture in March. For April-June 2004, the <br />northwestel11 plateau of Colorado is nagged as a potential drought trouble spot, while the <br />remainder of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona have better thannorn1al odds of <br />receiving at least average moisture. A retul11 of El Nino is still possible for the summer, but <br />quite unlikely before the end of spring. <br />