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<br />Jack Bvers. Division of Water Resources. Vice-Chair W ATF
<br />Mr, Byers gave a draft power point presentation on the Colorado Drought and asked the
<br />Task Force members for input before fmalizing the presentation,
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<br />Bob Glancv. National Weather Service. Short Term Weather Forecast
<br />Mr,Glancy reported the following for October 17,2002: The general pattem will hold for
<br />the next 5 days.,. with an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest. ,. a broad upper trough
<br />over the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, An upper low will move across New
<br />Mexico today. ,. spreading some moisture to our south, Over Colorado dry northwest
<br />flow will prevaiL
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<br />In this type of patter, if the ridge builds northward strong enough. , . the northwest flow
<br />over Colorado becomes northerly., . allowing for a stronger cold front with upslope
<br />conditions, There is a chance of this developing next Tuesday into Wednesday,
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<br />As we head into the last week of October. , .it appears that more energy will undercut the
<br />ridge.,. allowing more moisture to move west to east across the Southwest U,S, and parts
<br />of Colorado,
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<br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. Long Term Weather Outlook
<br />Mr, Wolter mentioned that El Nino conditions are looking more favorable, For future
<br />statewide effects, he stated that the Arkansas basin has the best chance of recovery and
<br />that the South Platte had the least probability of recovery,
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<br />1, El Nino is now entering the time of year when changes from month to month should
<br />be less pronounced than previously, Such calmer behavior also translates into a better
<br />consensus among different ENSO forcasts, now indicating at least moderate El Nino
<br />conditions for the upcoming winter season,
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<br />2, Historically, El Nino has been associated with wetter than average conditions for
<br />November, March and May in Colorado, often translating into decent early season
<br />skiing conditions, as well as a prolonged wet spring, These relationships are
<br />strongest over the plains of eastern Colorado, and weakest for the highest elevations
<br />of the north-central mountains, Conversely, a smaller number of mid-winter storms
<br />may leave the latter region "high and dry" for much of January and February,
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<br />3, Wet weather returned to Colorado during the last two months, with quite a few
<br />locales exceeding their normal monthly precipitation for September, Whether this is
<br />truly the beginning of the end of our drought, or just temporary relief, remains to be
<br />seen, With the recent rains soaking the parched ground just before the end of the
<br />growing season, soil moisture is at least partially restored, and fire danger has been
<br />much reduced, Snow-capped mountains remind us that the ski season is not far
<br />behind, and may even be offto a better-than-average start, given historic El Nino
<br />relationships,
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