Laserfiche WebLink
<br />Executive Summary (17 May 2004) <br /> <br />I. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over last June - tried to make a comeback last <br />fall, but has been 'clinically dead' for some time now, Near-neutral ENSO conditions <br />remain the safest bet for the next few months, with dwindling hope remaining for a <br />resurgent EI Nino later this year. <br /> <br />2. After a disappointing March that produced early snowmelt in elevations below about <br />9,000 ft., and reducing the snowpack during a time of year when it should be growing the <br />fastest, April tried to make up for it. This appears to have benefitted the Front Range, the <br />Sangre de Cristos, and the San Juans the most, with Summit County (and parts of the <br />northeastern plains) receiving the least moisture. Despite some resemblance of March <br />2004 with April 2002, this does not look like a repeat of that extreme spring, On the <br />other hand, April 2004 does not quite measure up to the moisture totals received in April <br />1999, Furthermore, May has fallen behind again in the moisture department, despite one <br />good storm during the past few days. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain <br />to our south, both in Arizona as well as eastern New Mexico. Near-normal moisture may <br />be the best we can hope for this summer. If this comes coupled with yet another hot <br />summer, drought conditions may worsen yet again.. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: The roller-coaster ride of alternating wet and dry spells for Colorado will <br />continue into the foreseeable future. Until the tropical Pacific "makes up its mind" <br />whether to slide into EI Nifio or La Nina, less predictable shorter-term variability will <br />dominate the picture, leading to volatile climate forecasts and increased uncertainty. <br />