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<br />cold front is expected later in the week Temperatures could drop five to ten degrees with <br />increasing chances of thunderstonns. The forecast is 99 degrees for today, but next week we <br />should be in the lower 90' s. Other parts of the state could get even hotter next week. Mr. <br />Glancy reported that the long-term forecast shows we have a better chance of showers and <br />thunderstonns in the next two weeks. Dry lightning is expected to start fires in the next couple <br />of days. He expects a hot July and dry August. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter, NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, Long Tenn Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter said that two weeks of very hot weather is all it takes to cause drought problems <br />again and crops to dry up. He mentioned that El Nino is good for Colorado. Mr. Wolter <br />explained there is a low chance of moisture for the San Luis Valley during the rainy season of <br />summer, and that he sees no change for the eastern part of the state. He said La Nina is not <br />coming unless in the winter or late fall and that La Nina tends to be dry. <br /> <br />The following executive summary has been added to the minutes: <br />"Executive summary (18 July 2003) <br /> <br />1. As of mid-July 2003, the most recent El Nino event - declared over last month - is trying to make a comeback. <br />Developing La Nina conditions for the previous two months have been effectively erased by resurgent wanllth in <br />the central and eastern Pacific. probably due to a well-timed and well-placed intraseasonal (Madden-Julian-) <br />oscillation. Near-neutral conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I would not be surprised to see <br />renewed El Nino conditions by next winter. Therefore, the scenario of back-to-back El Nino winters is very much <br />alive, as hoped for in earlier assessments of the situation. <br /> <br />2. HistOlically, El Nino has been associated with wetter than average conditions in Colorado dming the fall season, <br />drier than normal winters, and wetter than average springs. This seasonal cycle appears particularly pronounced for <br />the northeastern part of the state, while the Arkansas Valley tends to receive above-nolTllal precipitation throughout <br />the year during El Nino conditions. Considering the overall impacts of this El Nino event on u.s. weather, northeast <br />Colorado indeed stands out as a 'poster child' during 2002-3 (three COlTect forecasts for three seasons), while <br />southern Colorado (in particular, the San Juans) appears somewhat "neglected", especially dming this spring. As <br />expected, one El Nino event was not sufficient to completely alleviate the drought situation in Colorado, but it came <br />awfully close over the northern portion of the state where it helped to refill many reservoirs. <br /> <br />3. The dry and hot June that appeared a threat for eastern Colorado did not materialize. Or should I say that the heat <br />got a bit delayed? Through the first 17 days of the month, July is trying hard to beat last year's heat wave, and the <br />monsoon has been slow in establishing itself from Arizona to Colorado. However, the recent heat may very well <br />have peaked this week (over Colorado), and moisture has returned to the state both from the east and from the south. <br />The most recent experimental forecast continues to advertize above-normal rainfall for eastern New Mexico in July <br />through September. Some of that excess moisture should work its way into eastern Colorado as well, although that <br />tilt in the odds is not as pronounced as further south. The western two thirds of Colorado as well as Arizona and <br />Utah show much less inclination towards a wet or dry monsoon season than the eastern plains. I am concerned about <br />