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<br />U. S. Seasonal Drought Outlook <br />Through .July 2002 <br />Rele:llSedApril fa. 2002 <br />L"kelyto Persist <br />-\-. <br />~--..._- <br />Improvemen <br />..( L1k ely <br /> <br /> <br />Colorado Drou ht Watch <br /> <br />NOAA Drought Outlook <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />Some Improvement <br />Likely; <br />Scattered-Water <br />Sho rtages <br /> <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />.Q <br /> <br />"- <br /><'0 <br />(> <br /> <br />KEY: <br />_Drought to pel"'Slst or <br />intensi fv <br />~~rought ongoing, some <br />li&.&.Illllpro'Vement <br />_Drought likely to <br />improve <br />DDroU9ht development <br />IikeJV <br /> <br />May 8, 2002 <br /> <br />~'i'~ <br />1-, < I ,e) <br />'-;/ <br /> <br />L..........7 <br /> <br />Do:plcts ~no:ral large-scale trends baMd on subjectively derived probabilities <br />guid~ try' nun~rous Indicators. including short and long-range statistical and <br />dynamical forecasts Short-term .;o'lents.. such as individ~1 storms -- cannot M <br />3ccural~ 'o,ecast: more than alew days in aOwane€!. so use call1Oll t using this <br />outlook lor app~calions -- such as crops -- thai can be affected by such ~enls, <br />~On9omg" drought areas ate schematicallj approxinattod rrOn1 thto Drouoht <br />Monitor. for wtoel.1y drouoht updat~s. se~ the latest Drouoht MOnitor map and text <br /> <br />NOAA Seasonal Assessment: <br /> <br />Cumulative precipitation since October has been less than one- half of nor. <br />mal across this region. Significant improvement is not likely before Au- <br />gust, so the drought is forecast to persist. The fire danger in the South- <br />west is expected to be much above normal due to the low amounts of <br />winter snow pack and precipitation, and the expected warm and dry condi- <br />tions continuing into early summer. A poor winter snowfall season has <br />also caused drought to persist or intensify from central Colorado north- <br />ward to Montana. Streamflows for spring and summer are forecast to be <br />only 50 to 70% of normal over large parts of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, <br />and Colorado, with flows under 50% of normal in portions of Wyoming, <br />Colorado, and Utah. low flows are also forecast for parts of southern and <br />eastern Idaho. The result is possible summer water supply shortages. Al- <br />though the hydrological drought is not likely to end before next winter, <br />near or above- normal rainfall this spring may boost soil moisture and <br />benefit crops and livestock. <br /> <br />"Significant <br />improvement is <br />not likely before <br />August, so the <br />drought ;s <br />forecast to <br />persist" <br /> <br />6 <br />