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<br />Colorado (and Interior Southv.'esl) forecasts <br /> <br />Page 1 of I <br /> <br />6. Executive Summary (updated on January 23rd, <br />2005; next update by February 17th, 2006) <br /> <br />I. Weak 2004~05 EI Nino conditions faded away this summer, only to be replaced by an unusually laic La Niila <br />event. Recent E~SO-related SST anomalies ha\.c grown to -I C indicating moderate strength. Vihether or not <br />this "cvent" will persist into the spring scason is completely uncertain. <br /> <br />2. AHer a cold start. December featured a drastic warm-up ~lfter mid.month that gave many locales a "near- <br />nonnal" temperature average. except for high. snow-co\'ered mountain valleys that remained cold into the New <br />Year. The last 30 days continued snowy in the northern and central mountains of Colorado. while the southern <br />mountains and eastern plains had to endure dry and windy weather. This has n:sulted in the best snow pack <br />conditions in almost a decade in the northern and central mountains. while the southern mounlains l1irt with <br />record. low snow pack le\'els. Our neighboring states to the south ha\.e seen vcry little moisture this fall. <br />anticipated three months ago for Ari/ona. but nol for New ~1cxico. <br /> <br />3. My experimental forecast guidance for late winter (January-March 2006) continues to show good <br />precipitation odds for northern Utah and the mountains ofnorth-cemral Colorado. while the outlook l'Or <br />Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado remains dry. My current outlook into the spring season (April.June <br />2006) is remarkably benign for Colorado and Ne\". Mexico. while keeping a dry outlook for the northwestern <br />half of Utah. This long-lead outlook is handicapped by poor perfom1i.Ulce skill in the last 5i.x years. If La Nina <br />were to persist into the spring season. a more pessimistic outlook would have to be adopted. <br /> <br />4. Bottomlinc: EI Nino appears to have been replaced by La Niilil as a factor this winter. This has resulted in a <br />dry winter forecasll'Or Illuch of the southwestem U.S. Meanwhile. the wet outlook for the mountains of north- <br />central Colorado and northern Utah rcmaills in place. The new forecast into the spring season rellccrs large <br />ullcertainties about the fate of the current La Nina situation. What presently looks like a Illoderately optimistic <br />outlook for Colorado. Arizona. and New Mexico could easily be replaced by a dry outlook should La Nina stick <br />around. <br /> <br />Questions about this wcbpage should be addressed to: <br />(Klaus.y.'oltcr@noaa.go,,).(303)497-6340. <br /> <br />lVOAA-C1RES Climate Diagnostics Center <br />Docllmenf mainfained by Klaus Wolter (Klaus. Wolter@llOlltl.J:m~ <br />Updated: Jan 23. 2006 17:49:03 ..\1ST <br />Il1tp:/hn.w.cdc.l1oaa,gov/pt'oph'/klmH_ U"oltf!r/SHc/tlh/inde.l.llfml <br /> <br />http://v.'ww .cdc.noaa.gov/peoplelk lalls. \volterlS W casts! <br /> <br />1/25/2006 <br />