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<br /> <br />Executive Summary (November 23rd, 2004) <br /> <br />1. The 2002-03 EI Nino event ended more than a year ago. Over the last five months, the <br />tropical Pacific has warmed yet again, and a fledgling new EI :Nino event has indeed <br />developed. The current event will probably stay weaker than the one two years ago. <br /> <br />2. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, dry May), our summer ended up being quite wet <br />and cool in the EASTERN half of Colorado, while drought conditions continued in western <br />Colorado. Fall moisture has mitigated this situation somewhat over western Colorado, but <br />not nearly as much as over southern California, western Arizona, and much of Utah. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for Jan-Mar '05, the odds for above-normal precipitation reach <br />significant levels in eastern new Mexico and the Texas panhandle, as well as over the north- <br />central mountains of Colorado, while weaker reverse odds apply to northern Utah and <br />northeast Colorado. Compared to other years, my 2004 forecasts have been quite volatile, <br />reflecting very unsettled conditions over the tropical Pacific basin in particular. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: EI Nino has returned to the Pacific, but is weaker than many historic events, and <br />appears to focus on the central rather than the eastern basin. This tilts the odds weakly <br />towards a dry early winter in Colorado's northern mountains On the other hand, late winter <br />moisture may balance this out over the same region. If EI Nino were to grow into next year, <br />most of Colorado and adjacent states would improve their odds for above-normal moisture <br />during the upcoming spring season. <br />