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Executive Summary (April 19,2004) I. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over last June - tried to make a comeback last tall, but has been 'clinically dead' for some time now. Ncar-neutral EN SO conditions remain the safest bet for the next few months, with dwindling hope remaining for a resurgent EI Nitio later this year. 2. After a disappointing March that produced early snowmelt in elevations below about 9,000 n., and reducing the snowpack during a time of year when it should be growing the tastest, early April tried to make up for it. This appears to have benefitted the Front Range, the Sangre de Cristos, and the San Juans the most, while the northwestern and northeastern corners of Colorado receivcd the least. Despite some resemblance of March 2004 with April 2002, this docs not look like a repeat of that extreme spring. On the other hand, despite a wet start in parts of Colorado, one should not expect the rest of April to remain wet. 3. In my experimental forecasts for April through June 2004, overall tilts in the odds remain weak (none bigger than +/-8%), and unsettled. After last month's drastic drop in forecast amounts, the latest iteration keeps the mountains of north-central Colorado and adjacent plains into WY on the dry side, while the plains south and east of Denver continue their tilt towards wetness. A first look at the monsoon season favors a wetter than normal monsoon both from Arizona into eastern Utah, as well as over the Southern Plains from NM eastward. Six out often forecast regions, including most of Colorado, appear undecided at this point. 4. Bottomline: The roller-coaster ride of alternating wet and dry spells for Colorado will continue into the foreseeahle future. Until the tropical Pacific "makes up its mind" whether to slide into EI Nino or La Nina, less predictable shorter-tenn variability will dominate the picture, leading to volatile climate forecasts and increased uncertainty. The good news is that there arc no strong indications of renewed drought in the near future.