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<br />the Dolores and Rio Grande basins fall into this category as of March 1, Most basins continued
<br />to drop further below average as of March 1, Snowpack remains well below average in all
<br />basins statewide, The lowest basins are the South Platte and Dolores at 45% of average, the Rio
<br />Grande basin at 46%, and the Gunnison basin at 58% of average, The YampalWhite basin and
<br />Colorado River basin have the highest values at 72% and 70% of average, respectively,
<br />Comparing this year's March 1 snowpack to records kept back to 1968, this year is the lowest
<br />since 1981, and the last 5 years have been the only consistently below average period since 1968,
<br />NRCS provided an updated probability analysis of basins reaching average snowfall by April 1,
<br />The likelihood ofthat happening was virtually zero, NRCS provided another graph of
<br />probabilities by basin of an increase in snow water equivalent in April and May, The chances
<br />were best for a wet spring in the North and South Platte and Yampa White basins, but low for
<br />most other basins in Colorado,
<br />
<br />Reservoir Storage - As of March 1, NRCS Reservoir storage was 88% statewide, 90% oflast
<br />year, Storage is below average in all basins, except for the Gunnison and YampalWhite basins,
<br />BoR reservoir storage details show most reservoirs have below average storage as of January 31,
<br />with slightly above average content in Taylor Park, Blue Mesa, Carter Lake and Vallecito, Most
<br />reservoirs are not expected to fill this year based on this spring's runoff forecast, Denver
<br />Water's reservoir network is at 78% of capacity, which is typically at 82% of capacity this time
<br />of year, Denver Water does not anticipate imposing water use restrictions this year,
<br />
<br />Stream Flow - Stream flows since the beginning ofthe 2002 water year (October 2001) continue
<br />to track 70-80% below average in all basins, NRCS stream flow forecasts for the irrigation
<br />season are for much below average to extremely below average flows, Most junior water users
<br />should expect to see cut-offs in the coming water demand season,
<br />
<br />Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Index - The six month SPl (September 2001-
<br />February 2002) shows most of the western slope under "moderate drought" with pockets of
<br />"extreme drought" in La Plata, Montezuma, and Saguache counties, Much of the eastern slope is
<br />in the "near normal" category, except for "moderate drought" in the southeast comer of the state,
<br />No Palmer values were provided for February,
<br />
<br />Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) - February's SWSl values dropped with the decrease in
<br />snowpack. The SWSl values for February are negative in all basins, mostly in the "moderate
<br />drought" range, Three of the seven basins are in the "severe drought" category: The Yampa,
<br />Dolores, and Rio Grande basins,
<br />
<br />Forecasted Weather - The short term outlook was for warming temperatures Friday and
<br />Saturday March 22 and 23, with another system expected to bring some snow mostly to the
<br />mountains on Sunday and Monday, The 8-14 day outlook calls for normal temperatures and
<br />below normal precipitation, Long term - April-June temperature outlooks tend to be above
<br />normal for the southern half of Colorado, So far March temperatures have had record breaking
<br />lows, but these cold fronts have been affecting Northern Colorado, Experimental forecasts for
<br />April - June show a slight potential for wetter than average conditions in eastern Colorado, but
<br />neutral for the southwest comer, Most models are continuing to predict at least mild to growing
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