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<br />r <br /> <br />Executive Summary (12 May 2005) <br /> <br />1. The weak 2004-05 EI Nino event lingered into May with large-scale SST anomalies that <br />barely exceeded 0.5C (1 F). However, the advertized eastward propagating Kelvin wave <br />appears to have hit the coast of South America, and has produced dramatic surface <br />warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, recently peaking at +2C. While this warming is <br />fading now, another westerly wind burst is getting ready to invade the Western Pacific, and <br />may reinforce the warming in the eastern Pacific this summer. <br /> <br />2. The last two months have seen an improvement in northern Colorado snow pack values <br />compared to normal, but not enough to reach average historic peak levels. Nevertheless, <br />relatively cool spring weather in combination with a siege of late-April snows and rains in <br />the last few days have kept 'the wolves' at bay (no forest fires to speak off, yet!). However, <br />the remainder of May does not look promising, since the storm track appears to remain <br />stuck to our north. <br /> <br />3. In my latest experimental forecasts for July-September 2005, only eastern Colorado and <br />southeastern New Mexico have favorable odds for a wet summer, while Arizona in <br />particular may have to brace for a dry monsoon. The remainder of Colorado has roughly <br />climatological odds for the summer, which is more favorable than in previous forecasts. <br /> <br />4. Bollomline: EI Nino has gained a foothold in the eastern Pacific which may have already <br />helped with an enhanced storm track over the last few weeks. While the outlook for the <br />remainder of spring is not very favorable in Colorado, the summer season has no distinct <br />tilt towards dryness over Colorado, and a possibly rejuvinated EI Nino event could even <br />boost our chances for a wet summer. <br />