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<br />- -- <br /> <br />_ n <br /> <br />-- - -- - - <br /> <br />----1 <br /> <br />1, The most recent El Nino event - declared over in June - is still trying to make a comeback. Weak <br />EI Nino conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I would not be surprised to see <br />El Nino return in force later this year. However, it is not likely that it will playa role before spring <br />IS over. <br /> <br />Executive Summary (21 January 2004) <br /> <br />2. I f it had not been for this year's wet spring, 2003 would go into the history books as yet another <br />drought year in much of Colorado. The last three months have been particularly dry over eastern <br />Colorado, while western Colorado has received the lion's share of the moisture since the storm <br />season started in late October, leading to a decent snowpack everywhere but the Front Range. <br /> <br />3. My experimental forecasts for January through March 2004 advertises below-normal precipitation <br />for most of the forecast domain, in particular New Mexico, while the northeastern plains feature a <br />modest tilt of the odds towards receiving above-normal moisture. Compared to earlier forecasts, <br />this one is drier than initially expected, Looking at the upcoming spring season (April-June 2004), <br />all but northwestern Colorado and most of the adjacent states show near-normal or even slightly <br />wetter-than-nornlal odds, an upward trend compared to last month's initial forecast. <br /> <br />4. I3otlomline: The dry fall of2003 has erased some of the gains made through a wet spring in <br />Northeast Colorado, For earlv 2004, the odds are not favorable for a wet late winter in much of <br />. <br />Colorado. Meanwhile, New Mexico appears locked in severe drought conditions, while Utah and <br />Arizona have mild drought odds, similar to Colorado. For April-June 2004, the northwestern <br />plateau of Colorado is flagged as a potential drought trouble spot, while the remainder of Colorado, <br />New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona have better than normal odds of receiving at least average <br />moisture, The sooner EI Nino makes a comeback, the bettGr the odds for a wet late spring and <br />summer, but the jury is still out on lbat. <br />