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<br />- 4- <br /> <br />National Weather Service (Larry Wcdrod) <br />The NWS has six meteorologists ani sting at four commond centers for the for~t fires. There was recent golf ball sized hail <br />in Well county and 2-3" of rain in Douglas County. That rainstorm dumped V4 " rain on the Hayman Fire. There is a moist <br />atmosphere today and weather that average. Won't tabe much rain to couse flood problems in the bum areas. Don't <br />see relief in near future. The northeast part of the state may get some moisture but the is Culf of Mexico storms this <br />summer haven't produced much moisture on the western slope. <br /> <br />HDR Engineering (H~ro.Me') - John Hen. <br />ewes contracts with John Henz for forecasts and posts them to the we~ite. His POVJerPoint presentation con be found at <br />http://cwcb.state.co.us/ftoodwatch/index.html#flow Et Nino impact on this summer? First the summer monsoon <br />preceding 0 new EI Nino umolly features an early but "eastern" monsoon. "Eastern monsoon" means moisture fetch off <br />the Gulf of Mexico. not the Pacific Ocean. Favors most summer rain on the plains east of the Continental Divide not west <br />of Divide. Summer flash flooding threat will focus on urban areas along the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge. Palmer <br />Divide and Raton Mesa features and tire-bum areas. <br />Summer flood threat - depends on the follOVJing factors. Strength and source of the summer, monsoon suggests <br />flooding threat primarily along the Front Range east of the Continental Divide. Fire burn zones pose a serious threat to <br />life, water supply and property. West of Divide fire zones pose primary risl:? from July 15 to Sep ,. <br />Summer forecast - Above average severe weather threat on eastern plains with return of damaging hail and <br />tornadoes to Front Range from Fort Collins to Pueblo. A major Denver event is possible in June and early July. <br />Precipitation will struggle to reach normal until4lh of July and then remain ./- 25% of normal July into mid-August in the <br />east Most rainfall along the Colorado-Kansas border. West of the Divide will remain dry until the "monsooner" starts <br />about 4th of July. Aash flood threat will be very active 10 July until 20 August. Rainfall will be about 6O~90% of normal. <br />Mountain reservoirs will still remain belOVJ normal and demand may exceed supply by August unless a "Iud?y" monsoon <br />rain hits the right basins. <br /> <br />National Oceanic Atmospheric Admlnlltratlon - Climate Diagnostics Center _ Klaus Wolter <br />Klaus states that tVJO months ago the EI Nino that UJOS building was on life support but nOVJ it has grown substantially and <br />may mabe it in the top 10 for El Nines in a best case scenario. Klaus used some of the USGS streamgage graphs to <br />illustrate that July is often a mini dry season in the north west region of the state and they don't get the typical monsoon <br />moisture that the eastern part of the state gets. He forecasted wetter than average conditions in the north east and stated <br />that a drought is very hard to breal:? out of. Klaus Wolter's forecasts are on the web at <br />hUp:/lv.N.II.U.cdC.nOOQ.Qov!-l?ew/SWCQstl/. An executive summary of Klaus's forecast follows: <br /> <br />1. EI Nino has grOVJn dramatically over the last month. even more so thon most predictions made earlier this year. <br />This was anticipated in last month's executive summary, but exceeded even my expectations. In the immediate future. I <br />do not anticipate large changes In the strength of this EI Nino event. although continued slOVJ growth appears more lil:?efy <br />than not. <br />2 Historically, even modest EI Nino conditions have been associated with wetter than average conditions for the <br />summer months in Colorado and several adjacent states. I am nOVJ more confident than in previous months that this El <br />Nino will be around through the summer, and at a big enough size to hove an impact. Climate impacts through the <br />upcoming winter season are probable in Colorado. and will be outlined in subsequent updates of this webpage. <br />3. The latest experimental forecasts for July through September continue a better than SO/50 chance for wetness in <br />eastern Colorado, compared to unhnOVJn odds for the westernmost regions. These forecasts are based on a variety of <br />influences on our climate. with EI Nino being just one of several indicators that loal:? favorable for this summer. The one <br />factor that continues to reduce my confidence in this forecmt is the historic tendency of drought conditions to perpetuate <br />themselves. Enough data has been collected through the recent spring season to checl:? my spring forecmt of relative <br />wetness over the northern Colorado Front Range compared to dryness towards the Four Comers region - the distribution <br />of rainfall follOVJed the forecast pattern, but with reduced amounts almost every.A.lhere. <br />4. Several moderate storms and cool. damp weather were beneticial in northeastern Colorado from mid-May <br />through early June, and have bept fires at bay in this region compared to much of the rest of the state that appears to be <br />under siege from multiple human-caused fires. From Arizona into the Son Juans and southern Utah, where April-June is <br />the driest time of the year. only the upcoming monsoon season will be able to reduce current extreme tire danger <br />conditions, and mitigate against some of the other drought impacts. <br /> <br />F100d ProI:t'l.ll0n . WJI("r ProJt'l.1 Pl.mnmg and Fin.rncm!l.. Strcam and LJk... Prott'l.lion <br />Watcr Surply PrOCt'l.ll0n . Conscr."aILOn P1anmng <br />