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<br />maybe here next Tuesday. Mr. Glancy said it would be dry and warm the rest of this week, but a <br />chance of snow here earlier next week. It's also good for the mountains next week. He said it <br />should be warm in the plains into Sunday and than expect colder air. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diae:nostic Center. Lone: Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter stated that El Nino was trying to come together, but it appears to be in a holding <br />pattem. He said near normal temperatures and precipitation are expected. Mr. Wolter said this <br />is the driest Colorado in the last 30 years for this month; he also said February looks dry. <br />However, we could get some snow next week. He said Colorado is mostly dry from January <br />through March and wetter October through December. Mr. Wolter said that from April to June <br />expect normal precipitation in the southwest, but that it will remain mostly dry, but wetter than <br />January through March. He believes El Nino will probably be too late for our spring. Mr. <br />Wolter also mentioned that last year February was the first month to turn things around on <br />precipitation, and most of Colorado is close to normal now. <br /> <br />The following executive summAry from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br /> <br />Executive summary (23 January 2004) <br /> <br />1. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over last June - is still trying to make a <br />comeback. Weak EI Nino conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I <br />would not be surprised to see EI Nino return in force later this year. However, it is not <br />likely that it will playa role before spring is over. <br />2. If it had not been for last year's wet spring, 2003 would go into the history books as <br />yet another drought year in much of Colorado. The fall and early winter have been <br />particularly dry over eastern Colorado, while western Colorado has received the lion's <br />share of the moisture since the storm season started in late October, leading to a <br />decent snowpack everywhere but the Front Range. <br />3. My experimental forecasts for January through March 2004 advertises below-normal <br />precipitation for most of the forecast domain, in particular New Mexico, while the <br />northeastern plains feature a modest tilt of the odds towards receiving above-normal <br />moisture. Compared to earlier forecasts, this one is drier than initially expected. Looking <br />at the upcoming spring season (April-June 2004), all but northwestern Colorado and <br />most of the adjacent states show near-normal or even slightly wetter-than-normal odds, <br />an upward trend compared to last month's initial forecast. <br />