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<br />Precipitation - January precipitation was again well below average across most of the state, <br />particularly in the southwest and northeast corners of the state. The accumulated precipitation <br />map for the water year so far (October 2001 through January 2001) reflects the shallow mountain <br />snowpack with mostly below average conditions in the mountains to slightly above average on <br />the eastern plains. Durango's January precipitation was the worst on record, only 0.06 inches <br />compared to a normal of 2.0 inches. <br /> <br />Snowoack - NRCS snowpack measurements were 58% of average as of February 28,72% of <br />last year. Snowpack remains well below average in all basins statewide, which is unusual for <br />Colorado's varied climate regions. The lowest basins are the South Platte at 42% of average, the <br />Rio Grande basin at 45%, and the Dolores basin at 47% of average. The YampalWhite basin and <br />Colorado River basin have the highest values at 67% and 66% of average, respectively. This <br />year's February 1 snowpack is the lowest (58% of average) snowpack for that date seen since <br />1981 (37% of average), but very close to the 59% of average on February 1, 1990. NRCS <br />provided a probability analysis of basins reaching average snowfall by April 1. The likelihood <br />of that happening was less than 10% for all basins except for the Colorado at 12% and the <br />Arkansas at 20%. <br /> <br />Reservoir Storage - As of February 1, NRCS Reservoir storage was 87% statewide, 91 % of <br />last year. Storage is below average in all basins, except for the Gurmison and YampalWhite <br />basins. Arkansas basin storage dropped to 78% of average, the first time below average in about <br />a decade. BoR reservoir storage details show most reservoirs have below average storage as of <br />January 31, with slightly above average content in Taylor Park, Blue Mesa, and Vallecito. These <br />large reservoirs are not expected to fill based on this spring's runoff forecast, but small reservoirs <br />could. Denver Water's reservoir network is at 78% of capacity, which is typically at 82% of <br />capacity this time of year. <br /> <br />Stream Flow - Stream flows since the beginning ofthe 2002 water year (October 2001) continue <br />to track 70-80% below average in all basins. NRCS stream flow forecasts for the irrigation <br />season are for much below average flows. The headwaters ofthe North and South Platte rivers <br />can expect less than 50% of average runoff this spring. Most junior water users should expect to <br />see cut-offs in the coming water demand season. In the Arkansas basin press releases were <br />developed during January to alert well owners of the potential for reduced augmentation supplies <br />and to encourage dry-year plarming for the 2002 irrigation season. Local water administrators in <br />the Rio Grande basin are waming users of a possible drought <br /> <br />Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Index - The three month SPI (N ovember- <br />January) shows most of the state in the "near normal", with a pocket of "moderate drought" <br />centered on Garfield County and Montezuma, La Plata, and Archuleta counties. Based on the 6 <br />month SPI the southwest and southeast plains have the greatest precipitation deficits. The <br />Palmer Index continues to indicate dry conditions in all basins statewide. <br /> <br />Surface Water Supplv Index (SWSI) - The SWSI for January presents a bleak outlook statewide. <br />Values are negative in all basins, in the "moderate drought" range. This reflects the low <br />February 1 snowpack, the major component of the SWSI this time of year. <br />