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<br />NIN034 SST anomaly plume <br />ECMWF 10recast from 1 Dee 2(X)5 <br />_.., .......JlICIl-.l..~ NCE~",-CIl419'11~C_-' <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />Syu..m? <br /> <br />cr <br />.#........... <br />iI' "... <br />~o .................. <br />~ ..... <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />NIN034 SST anomaly plume <br />ECMWF 10recast trom 1 Feb 2006 <br />\obl1~......pi<nod...~IICI:P~0Io2I07t.2000c-...... <br /> <br />- Sys-.e.m2 <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />/ <br /> <br />6, <br />iii' <br />~ <br />~ <br />~ <br />~o <br /> <br />-~o <br /> <br />o <br /> <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />'., <br />" <br />'. <br />" - <br />.:....-.... . <br />...... <br />........ <br />.....~ <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />, 4 <br />_v JVN .Il"- "'>.G SEP OCT I.cN Cl'C .I..... FEI IAA'" "'PI'! ""'V JU'O <br />2000 2"" <br /> <br />~QIlICBl podllCl""'dalO> ,<l Dec2CO!!i <br /> <br />NI~03 4 SST anomaly plume <br />ECMWF forecast from 1 Ocl2005 <br />......... ............._,oIClP..-OO;:;l '~I.3lDO~.... <br /> <br />&,111"" <br />, , <br /> <br />6, <br />l <br />i........'........, ~ <br />~o ,....,......". '- 0 <br />.....'~..- .-.y <br />". <br />'. <br />.....~..... <br /> <br />.1 .1 <br /> <br />....yo/Vf<...... AU; SfP QC;T....,.., D<<' .A,.. H8...." tol'''....y .,.... <br />"'" 200. <br /> <br />_1pc>cl__'<lOcI:ilXl!i <br /> <br />c <br /> <br />JUl olII,...lG UP ocr ~ oec J"'r. FEe 104M APA Io4AV JUN JUl Al.CI ~EP <br />2000 2006 <br /> <br />fo.:MlpocIudlQll~'" ,.. ".tl4n16 <br /> <br />c <br /> <br />The European model (50 ensemble members, or <br />'spaghettis') predicted peak negative SST anomalies <br />this winter (top left), and a return to "normal" by late <br />spring. Its most recent forecast (from last month; top <br />right) is eyen more adamant about this rebound even <br />into above-normal conditions, Since this time of year is <br />known as the 'spring predictability barrier', and since <br />this model missed last fall's drop into La Nina (left), <br />we should remain 'open-minded'. Neyertheless, the <br />peak cold anomaly in January was well anticipated, <br />~--' <br />